Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Chapman

matchup for Tanner Houck

255th out of 436 (Worst 42%)

Tanner Houck

matchup for Matt Chapman

390th out of 567 (Worst 31%)

Leans in favor of Chapman

Matt Chapman has a 31.7% chance of reaching base vs Tanner Houck, which is 1.5% lower than Chapman's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Houck.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.7%	21.5%	2.6%	4.2%	14.7%	10.2%	21.5%
Chapman	-1.5	+0.5	-0.6	-0.5	+1.5	-2.0	-3.2
Houck	-0.1	-0.6	+0.5	-0.2	-0.9	+0.5	+1.9

Matt Chapman is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Tanner Houck is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Chapman has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Tanner Houck throws a Slider 40% of the time. Matt Chapman has a C+ grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

40%

Sinker (R)

28%

Splitter (R)

15%

4-Seam (R)

14%

10% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

53% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 41% higher than the MLB average. Matt Chapman has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 53%

+41%

Large Break 17%

+12%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

Very Slow Velo 22%

+9%

14.6% of Matt Chapman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.0% lower than the league average. Tanner Houck strikes out 14.2% of the batters he faces, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout 0.0% -1.6% 3%

Walk +2.1% +0.2% 40%

In Play -2.1% +1.4% 39%

On Base +0.7% +0.4% 31%

Hit -1.4% +0.3% 14%

Single -1.8% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% +0.7% 3%

Home Run +2.2% -0.9%

27.2% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Tanner Houck induces Standard Grounders at a 41.9% rate, which is 7.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.2% +7.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -5.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.7% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.9% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.8% -2.8% 3%

Pop up +2.7% -0.9%

36.0% of Matt Chapman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 11.6% higher than the league average. 30.6% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -6.0% -0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.9% -0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.2% -4.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.4% -0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +11.6% +6.3%

11.8% of Matt Chapman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.4% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +7.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.7% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -1.0% +1.7% 18%

7 to 18° -2.7% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.4% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% -2.7% 8%

Above 50° +6.1% -2.9%

Matt Chapman has 5 plate appearances against Tanner Houck in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.08	0.00	0.32	0.75			0.215

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-05-02	Flyout				99%
2023-05-02	Single			11%	89%
2023-05-02	Groundout		3%	5%	92%
2022-04-21	Groundout		3%	21%	77%
2022-04-21	Double		26%	39%	35%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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