Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willi Castro

matchup for George Kirby

396th out of 436 (Worst 9%)

George Kirby

matchup for Willi Castro

335th out of 567 (Worst 41%)

Moderate advantage for Castro

Willi Castro has a 30.0% chance of reaching base vs George Kirby, which is 2.3% lower than Castro's typical expectations, and 1.8% higher than batters facing Kirby.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.0%	24.9%	3.5%	5.7%	15.7%	5.1%	19.7%
Castro	-2.3	+0.6	+0.2	+0.2	+0.2	-2.9	-4.0
Kirby	+1.8	+2.2	+0.8	+0.5	+0.9	-0.4	-1.1

Willi Castro is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. George Kirby is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Castro has a C grade vs this particular release point.

George Kirby throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Willi Castro has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

22%

Sinker (R)

19%

Curve (R)

Splitter (R)

12% of George Kirby's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+3%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

26% of George Kirby's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 26%

+18%

Medium Break 18%

+9%

14.0% of Willi Castro's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. George Kirby strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.0% +0.5% 4%

Walk +0.5% -5.1% 39%

In Play +0.5% +4.6% 39%

On Base +1.8% -3.9% 31%

Hit +1.2% +1.2% 14%

Single +0.1% +0.5% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +0.8% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.1%

33.4% of Willi Castro's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. George Kirby induces Standard Grounders at a 36.4% rate, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.6% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.0% +2.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% +0.1% 14%

Low Screamer +6.0% -1.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% -2.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -0.6% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% -1.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.3% +3.1% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +2.1%

21.1% of Willi Castro's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. 22.6% of batted balls allowed by George Kirby are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +7.6% -4.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% +3.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.8% +2.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.7% +0.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.2% -1.7%

11.3% of Willi Castro's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by George Kirby are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +2.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.7% +2.2% 8%

1 to 6° +1.9% -1.2% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% -5.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.8% -1.8% 11%

29 to 38° -0.1% +1.0% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% +1.0% 8%

Above 50° +2.7% +1.9%

Willi Castro has 9 plate appearances against George Kirby in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 9 with a home run and 2 doubles and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	3	1	2	0	4	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			3.17	0.99	1.49	0.69			0.352

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-08	Home Run	98%	1%
2024-05-08	Triple		80%	13%	6%
2023-07-25	Triple		12%	41%	47%
2023-07-25	Strikeout
2023-07-20	Lineout	1%	55%	4%	40%
2023-07-20	Strikeout
2023-07-20	Strikeout
2022-08-30	Strikeout
2022-08-30	Pop Out			10%	90%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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