matchup for Tarik Skubal
matchup for Willi Castro
7
Willi Castro has a 25.7% chance of reaching base vs Tarik Skubal, which is 6.3% lower than Castro's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Skubal.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 25.7% | 21.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 28.2% |
| Castro | -6.3 | -2.9 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -0.2 | -3.4 | +4.2 |
| Skubal | +0.4 | +1.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | +1.2 | -0.6 | -1.6 |
Willi Castro is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Tarik Skubal is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Castro has a B grade vs this particular release point.
Tarik Skubal throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Willi Castro has a C- grade against left-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (L)
37%
Slider (L)
21%
Changeup (L)
20%
Sinker (L)
16%
Kn-Curve (L)
6%
15% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has a B grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
15%
+4%
Weak Challenge
11%
+2%
Edge Painter
19%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Chaser
6%
0%
Fringe Miss
12%
-1%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
Meatball
3%
-2%
Likely Ball
17%
-3%
16% of Tarik Skubal's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 13% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has an F grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Very Fast Velo
16%
+13%
Medium Ride
23%
+9%
14.2% of Willi Castro's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.7% lower than the league average. Tarik Skubal strikes out 20.2% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.
14%
Strikeout
-0.7%
+6.3%
4%
Walk
+0.4%
-3.3%
39%
In Play
+0.3%
-3.0%
39%
On Base
+1.9%
-5.7%
31%
Hit
+1.5%
-2.4%
14%
Single
+0.4%
-1.3%
13%
2B / 3B
+0.5%
-1.1%
3%
Home Run
+0.5%
0.0%
33.4% of Willi Castro's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Tarik Skubal induces Standard Grounders at a 37.1% rate, which is 2.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+0.6%
+0.3%
34%
Standard Grounder
-1.0%
+2.7%
7%
Hard Grounder
-0.8%
-2.9%
14%
Low Screamer
+5.9%
-2.2%
9%
Rising Liner
0.0%
-0.2%
4%
Maybe Homer
-0.1%
-1.5%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.8%
+1.0%
1%
No Doubter
-0.8%
-0.4%
20%
Routine Flyout
-4.3%
+2.5%
3%
Pop up
+1.4%
+0.7%
21.2% of Willi Castro's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 23.5% of batted balls allowed by Tarik Skubal are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+7.7%
-0.8%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+1.9%
+0.4%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-3.7%
+2.1%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-2.7%
-0.9%
24%
Above 100 mph
-3.1%
-0.8%
11.2% of Willi Castro's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Tarik Skubal are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-1.9%
+0.7%
12%
-10 to 0°
-3.6%
+0.5%
8%
1 to 6°
+1.9%
-0.4%
18%
7 to 18°
+2.2%
-1.8%
15%
19 to 28°
-0.9%
+2.1%
11%
29 to 38°
-0.2%
-1.1%
7%
39 to 50°
-0.3%
-0.2%
8%
Above 50°
+2.8%
+0.3%
Willi Castro has 5 plate appearances against Tarik Skubal in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.33 | 0.068 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-07-27 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-07-27 | Groundout | 1% | 9% | 90% | |
| 2024-07-27 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-07-02 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-07-02 | Groundout | 23% | 77% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
