Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willi Castro

matchup for Jalen Beeks

322nd out of 436 (Worst 26%)

Jalen Beeks

matchup for Willi Castro

196th out of 567 (Best 35%)

Strong advantage for Castro

Willi Castro has a 34.2% chance of reaching base vs Jalen Beeks, which is 1.9% higher than Castro's typical expectations, and 0.8% higher than batters facing Beeks.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.2%	26.2%	2.8%	5.0%	18.4%	8.1%	17.4%
Castro	+1.9	+1.8	-0.5	-0.5	+2.8	+0.0	-6.4
Beeks	+0.8	+2.0	+0.3	+0.1	+1.6	-1.3	-1.0

Willi Castro is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Jalen Beeks is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Castro has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Jalen Beeks throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Willi Castro has a C- grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

47%

Changeup (L)

34%

Cutter (L)

11%

Curve (L)

14% of Jalen Beeks's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has an A- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Weak Challenge 9%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-1%

34% of Jalen Beeks's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from left handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (L) 34%

+21%

Medium Slow Velo 24%

+10%

Medium Break 29%

+10%

14.0% of Willi Castro's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Jalen Beeks strikes out 14.2% of the batters he faces, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.0% -2.5% 4%

Walk +0.5% -0.1% 39%

In Play +0.5% +2.6% 39%

On Base +1.8% +0.4% 31%

Hit +1.2% +0.5% 14%

Single +0.1% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +1.0% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -1.3%

33.4% of Willi Castro's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Jalen Beeks induces Standard Grounders at a 40.8% rate, which is 6.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.6% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.0% +6.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer +6.0% +0.7% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -0.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% -0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.3% -4.1% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +1.4%

21.1% of Willi Castro's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. 20.7% of batted balls allowed by Jalen Beeks are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +7.6% +3.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% +4.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.8% -1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.7% -2.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.2% -3.6%

11.3% of Willi Castro's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 8.6% of batted balls allowed by Jalen Beeks are hit at this angle, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +5.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.7% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° +1.9% -1.5% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% -0.6% 15%

19 to 28° -0.8% -1.6% 11%

29 to 38° -0.1% -2.8% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% +0.3% 8%

Above 50° +2.7% +0.2%

Willi Castro has 2 plate appearances against Jalen Beeks in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.63	0.00	0.01	0.62			0.313

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-08-07	Groundout			5%	95%
2022-05-16	Single			56%	43%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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