Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willi Castro

matchup for Marcus Stroman

351st out of 436 (Worst 20%)

Marcus Stroman

matchup for Willi Castro

22nd out of 567 (Best 5%)

Extreme advantage for Castro

Willi Castro has a 38.8% chance of reaching base vs Marcus Stroman, which is 6.5% higher than Castro's typical expectations, and 1.2% higher than batters facing Stroman.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	38.8%	31.7%	3.1%	5.8%	22.7%	7.1%	16.7%
Castro	+6.5	+7.4	-0.1	+0.3	+7.2	-0.9	-7.0
Stroman	+1.2	+2.8	+0.4	0.0	+2.4	-1.6	-1.4

Willi Castro is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Marcus Stroman is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Castro has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Marcus Stroman throws a Sinker 40% of the time. Willi Castro has a C grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

40%

Slider (R)

18%

Cutter (R)

15%

Splitter (R)

11%

Curve (R)

10%

4-Seam (R)

22% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+3%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

37% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Small Drop, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Drop 37%

+24%

Medium Velo 29%

+18%

14.0% of Willi Castro's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Marcus Stroman strikes out 13.5% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.0% -3.1% 4%

Walk +0.5% -0.8% 39%

In Play +0.5% +3.9% 39%

On Base +1.8% +3.0% 31%

Hit +1.2% +3.8% 14%

Single +0.1% +2.4% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% +2.4% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -1.1%

33.4% of Willi Castro's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Marcus Stroman induces Standard Grounders at a 43.6% rate, which is 9.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.6% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.0% +9.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% +4.1% 14%

Low Screamer +6.0% -1.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% +0.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -1.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.3% -6.1% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -1.9%

21.1% of Willi Castro's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. 28.8% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +7.6% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% +0.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.8% -2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.7% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.2% +4.4%

11.3% of Willi Castro's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 7.4% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at this angle, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +7.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.7% +3.2% 8%

1 to 6° +1.9% +2.6% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% +0.5% 15%

19 to 28° -0.8% -2.6% 11%

29 to 38° -0.1% -4.0% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% -2.6% 8%

Above 50° +2.7% -4.4%

Willi Castro has 6 plate appearances against Marcus Stroman in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.88	0.00	0.12	0.76			0.176

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-06	Groundout		9%	33%	58%
2024-06-06	Hit By Pitch
2024-06-06	Groundout			8%	92%
2024-05-15	Walk
2024-05-15	Groundout			36%	64%
2024-05-15	Flyout		2%		98%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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