Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willi Castro

matchup for Lance Lynn

336th out of 436 (Worst 23%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Willi Castro

157th out of 567 (Best 29%)

Strong advantage for Castro

Willi Castro has a 33.9% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 1.6% higher than Castro's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.9%	26.4%	3.4%	6.3%	16.7%	7.5%	20.1%
Castro	+1.6	+2.1	+0.1	+0.8	+1.2	-0.5	-3.6
Lynn	+1.0	+2.3	+0.3	+0.5	+1.5	-1.3	+0.3

Willi Castro is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Castro has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Willi Castro has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Willi Castro has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

14.0% of Willi Castro's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.0% +1.3% 4%

Walk +0.5% -1.6% 39%

In Play +0.5% +0.3% 39%

On Base +1.8% -2.3% 31%

Hit +1.2% -0.6% 14%

Single +0.1% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B +0.6% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +0.6% -0.4%

33.4% of Willi Castro's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.6% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.0% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer +6.0% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.8% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -4.3% +0.7% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +1.6%

21.1% of Willi Castro's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.2% lower than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +7.6% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +2.1% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.8% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.7% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.2% -0.4%

11.3% of Willi Castro's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% -2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -3.7% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° +1.9% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° +2.1% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° -0.8% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -0.1% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° -0.2% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.7% +2.4%

Willi Castro has 5 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			2.02	0.95	0.04	1.04			0.404

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-08-14	Strikeout
2022-08-14	Strikeout
2022-06-13	Single		2%	94%	4%
2022-06-13	GIDP			9%	90%
2022-06-13	Home Run	95%	2%		3%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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