Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Luis Arraez

matchup for Corbin Burnes

420th out of 436 (Worst 4%)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for Luis Arraez

363rd out of 567 (Worst 36%)

Strong advantage for Arraez

Luis Arraez has a 33.6% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 0.3% higher than Arraez's typical expectations, and 3.8% higher than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.6%	29.2%	1.2%	5.2%	22.9%	4.4%	7.2%
Arraez	-0.3	+0.8	-0.2	-0.8	+1.7	-1.0	+0.1
Burnes	+3.8	+7.4	-1.2	+0.8	+7.8	-3.6	-15.9

Luis Arraez is better vs right-handed pitching. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Arraez has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Luis Arraez has a B+ grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Luis Arraez has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Luis Arraez has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

1.9% of Luis Arraez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 21.4% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

23%

Strikeout -21.4% +3.2% 7%

Walk -5.7% -1.6% 29%

In Play +27.1% -1.6% 39%

On Base +11.2% -3.4% 31%

Hit +16.9% -1.8% 14%

Single +9.5% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +9.5% -0.2% 3%

Home Run -2.0% -0.8%

36.3% of Luis Arraez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.0% rate, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.9% +5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.2% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer +1.7% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +2.5% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.3% -1.4% 3%

Likely Homer -2.7% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.5% -2.7% 3%

Pop up -2.1% 0.0%

4.8% of Luis Arraez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 19.5% lower than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.5% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.3% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +10.9% +2.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +6.8% -4.7% 24%

Above 100 mph -19.5% -0.6%

12.1% of Luis Arraez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +2.4% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.1% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% +2.4% 18%

7 to 18° +2.4% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° +2.1% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° -3.1% +2.2%

Luis Arraez has 4 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.81	0.00	0.09	0.73			0.203

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-22	Lineout		8%	27%	65%
2022-07-27	Groundout		1%	45%	53%
2022-07-27	Strikeout
2022-07-27	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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