Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Luis Arraez

matchup for Chris Sale

425th out of 437 (Worst 3%)

Chris Sale

matchup for Luis Arraez

178th out of 567 (Best 32%)

Strong advantage for Arraez

Luis Arraez has a 34.5% chance of reaching base vs Chris Sale, which is 1.9% higher than Arraez's typical expectations, and 4.4% higher than batters facing Sale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.5%	29.0%	1.1%	7.1%	20.7%	5.6%	10.4%
Arraez	+1.9	+1.6	-0.3	+1.0	+0.8	+0.3	+2.0
Sale	+4.4	+6.8	-1.1	+1.4	+6.6	-2.4	-22.6

Luis Arraez is worse vs left-handed pitching. Chris Sale is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Arraez has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Chris Sale throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Luis Arraez has a B grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

39%

Slider (L)

38%

Changeup (L)

15%

8% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Luis Arraez has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-4%

46% of Chris Sale's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 30% higher than the MLB average. Luis Arraez has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 46%

+30%

Large Drop 28%

+23%

Extreme Slow Velo 22%

+13%

Breaking (L) 38%

+8%

1.9% of Luis Arraez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 21.3% lower than the league average. Chris Sale strikes out 23.3% of the batters he faces, which is 11.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

23%

Strikeout -21.3% +11.2% 7%

Walk -5.6% -2.1% 29%

In Play +26.9% -9.0% 39%

On Base +11.3% -4.7% 31%

Hit +16.9% -2.6% 14%

Single +9.4% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +9.5% -1.2% 3%

Home Run -2.0% -0.7%

36.3% of Luis Arraez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. Chris Sale induces Standard Grounders at a 35.8% rate, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.9% +1.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.2% -1.3% 14%

Low Screamer +1.6% +1.2% 9%

Rising Liner +2.5% +0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.3% +1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -2.8% -1.2% 1%

No Doubter -1.2% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +5.7% -0.7% 3%

Pop up -2.1% -0.4%

4.7% of Luis Arraez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 19.6% lower than the league average. 21.1% of batted balls allowed by Chris Sale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.5% +2.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph +4.3% +3.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +11.1% -1.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +6.8% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -19.6% -3.2%

12.2% of Luis Arraez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 13.2% of batted balls allowed by Chris Sale are hit at this angle, which is 1.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.8% -0.5% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.2% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° +2.4% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° +2.2% +0.3% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% +1.7% 7%

39 to 50° +0.5% +0.3% 8%

Above 50° -3.1% -1.2%

Luis Arraez has 10 plate appearances against Chris Sale in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 10 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	10	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.200
Expected From Contact →			1.60	0.00	0.82	0.77			0.160

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Sac Bunt
2025-03-27	Groundout
2025-03-27	Groundout
2024-05-20	Flyout				100%
2024-05-20	Groundout			20%	80%
2024-05-20	Double		81%	16%	2%
2024-04-13	GIDP			7%	93%
2024-04-13	Groundout			6%	94%
2024-04-13	Single			12%	88%
2024-04-13	Groundout			15%	84%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe