Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Josh Naylor

matchup for Jared Jones

354th out of 436 (Worst 19%)

Jared Jones

matchup for Josh Naylor

290th out of 567 (Worst 49%)

Moderate advantage for Naylor

Josh Naylor has a 32.7% chance of reaching base vs Jared Jones, which is 0.2% higher than Naylor's typical expectations, and 1.6% higher than batters facing Jones.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.7%	23.5%	2.7%	5.7%	15.2%	9.1%	22.0%
Naylor	+0.2	-0.1	+0.3	+0.5	-0.8	+0.2	+2.8
Jones	+1.6	+2.7	-0.3	+0.7	+2.3	-1.1	-6.6

Josh Naylor is better vs right-handed pitching. Jared Jones is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Naylor has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Jared Jones throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Josh Naylor has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Slider (R)

35%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

17% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 17%

+6%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-4%

36% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Extreme Fast Velo 18%

+15%

Breaking (R) 44%

+13%

High Ride 22%

+11%

10.3% of Josh Naylor's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Jared Jones strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.2% +0.4% 4%

Walk +0.4% +0.6% 37%

In Play +6.8% -1.1% 39%

On Base +0.5% -0.1% 31%

Hit +0.1% -0.8% 14%

Single -0.4% -1.1% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.5% 3%

Home Run +0.3% +0.9%

35.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Jared Jones induces Standard Grounders at a 30.0% rate, which is 4.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% -4.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.7% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% +1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.5% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +0.6% +2.5%

29.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 24.7% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.7% +1.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% -4.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.9% -2.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.2% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% +0.4%

10.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.9% lower than the league average. 8.9% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%