Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Josh Naylor

matchup for Ryan Weathers

365th out of 436 (Worst 17%)

Ryan Weathers

matchup for Josh Naylor

322nd out of 567 (Worst 43%)

Moderate advantage for Naylor

Josh Naylor has a 32.3% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Weathers, which is 0.2% higher than Naylor's typical expectations, and 2.4% higher than batters facing Weathers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.3%	25.2%	1.7%	5.7%	17.7%	7.1%	17.4%
Naylor	-0.2	+1.6	-0.7	+0.5	+1.8	-1.8	-1.8
Weathers	+2.4	+3.6	-0.4	+0.1	+3.8	-1.3	-7.3

Josh Naylor is worse vs left-handed pitching. Ryan Weathers is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Naylor has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Weathers throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Josh Naylor has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

12% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

53% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 53%

+32%

Fast Velo 28%

+19%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

10.3% of Josh Naylor's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Ryan Weathers strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.2% -2.1% 4%

Walk +0.4% -0.6% 37%

In Play +6.8% +2.7% 39%

On Base +0.5% +0.9% 31%

Hit +0.1% +1.5% 14%

Single -0.4% +0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% +1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.5%

35.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Ryan Weathers induces Standard Grounders at a 40.1% rate, which is 5.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% +5.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.7% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.5% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% -5.5% 3%

Pop up +0.6% +1.2%

29.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.7% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.9% -0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.2% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% +1.1%

10.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.9% lower than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at this angle, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.4% +3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.1% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° -1.0% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° -0.9% -3.8% 7%

39 to 50° -0.9% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% -0.9%

Josh Naylor has 2 plate appearances against Ryan Weathers in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			0.82	0.00	0.00	0.81			0.408

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-07	Strikeout
2023-06-15	Single			81%	18%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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