Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Josh Naylor

matchup for Jack Flaherty

353rd out of 436 (Worst 19%)

Jack Flaherty

matchup for Josh Naylor

53rd out of 567 (Best 10%)

Extreme advantage for Naylor

Josh Naylor has a 36.2% chance of reaching base vs Jack Flaherty, which is 3.8% higher than Naylor's typical expectations, and 2.0% higher than batters facing Flaherty.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.2%	26.6%	3.0%	5.5%	18.0%	9.7%	16.0%
Naylor	+3.8	+3.0	+0.7	+0.3	+2.0	+0.8	-3.2
Flaherty	+2.0	+3.3	-0.6	+0.4	+3.5	-1.3	-6.8

Josh Naylor is better vs right-handed pitching. Jack Flaherty is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Naylor has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Jack Flaherty throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Josh Naylor has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Kn-Curve (R)

18%

21% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

45% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has a C grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 45%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

10.3% of Josh Naylor's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Jack Flaherty strikes out 20.5% of the batters he faces, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.2% +5.8% 4%

Walk +0.4% -1.5% 37%

In Play +6.8% -4.3% 39%

On Base +0.5% -2.0% 31%

Hit +0.1% -0.5% 14%

Single -0.4% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.2%

35.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Jack Flaherty induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.7% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +1.6% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.5% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% -1.3% 3%

Pop up +0.6% -0.8%

29.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.7% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.9% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.2% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -2.8%

10.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.9% lower than the league average. 12.2% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.4% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.1% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -1.0% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° -0.9% +0.7% 7%

39 to 50° -0.9% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% -1.9%

Josh Naylor has 12 plate appearances against Jack Flaherty in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 10 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	10	3	0	0	3	1	2	0.300
Expected From Contact →			2.80	0.00	0.34	2.46			0.280

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-08	Groundout		3%	7%	90%
2024-09-08	Groundout			33%	67%
2024-09-08	Double Play
2024-07-24	Flyout		4%		95%
2024-07-24	Strikeout
2024-07-24	Walk
2024-05-06	Walk
2024-05-06	Flyout				99%
2024-05-06	Single		2%	94%	4%
2023-05-27	Single		18%	56%	26%
2023-05-27	Single		7%	46%	48%
2023-05-27	Groundout			9%	91%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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