Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Josh Naylor

matchup for Freddy Peralta

415th out of 436 (Worst 5%)

Freddy Peralta

matchup for Josh Naylor

194th out of 567 (Best 35%)

Strong advantage for Naylor

Josh Naylor has a 33.7% chance of reaching base vs Freddy Peralta, which is 1.2% higher than Naylor's typical expectations, and 4.2% higher than batters facing Peralta.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.7%	22.4%	3.3%	4.8%	14.2%	11.3%	19.9%
Naylor	+1.2	-1.3	+0.9	-0.5	-1.7	+2.5	+0.7
Peralta	+4.2	+4.4	+0.4	+0.8	+3.1	-0.1	-7.1

Josh Naylor is better vs right-handed pitching. Freddy Peralta is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Naylor has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Freddy Peralta throws a 4-seam fastball 53% of the time. Josh Naylor has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

53%

Slider (R)

22%

Changeup (R)

14%

Curve (R)

11%

7% of Freddy Peralta's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Weak Challenge 4%

-4%

37% of Freddy Peralta's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Josh Naylor has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 37%

+18%

Medium Ride 28%

+14%

10.3% of Josh Naylor's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 7.2% lower than the league average. Freddy Peralta strikes out 21.5% of the batters he faces, which is 8.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -7.2% +8.8% 4%

Walk +0.4% +1.0% 37%

In Play +6.8% -9.8% 39%

On Base +0.5% -6.8% 31%

Hit +0.1% -7.8% 14%

Single -0.4% -3.9% 13%

2B / 3B +0.1% -3.6% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.3%

35.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Freddy Peralta induces Standard Grounders at a 27.8% rate, which is 6.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% -6.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.7% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -2.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% -0.7% 3%

Likely Homer +0.5% +0.8% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% +7.0% 3%

Pop up +0.6% +4.5%

29.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.2% higher than the league average. 22.6% of batted balls allowed by Freddy Peralta are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.7% +0.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% +0.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.9% +1.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.2% -0.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +5.2% -1.7%

10.5% of Josh Naylor's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.9% lower than the league average. 13.5% of batted balls allowed by Freddy Peralta are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.4% -4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.1% -2.3% 8%

1 to 6° +0.6% -1.1% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% -4.3% 15%

19 to 28° -1.0% +2.6% 11%

29 to 38° -0.9% +2.0% 7%

39 to 50° -0.9% +1.1% 8%

Above 50° +1.3% +6.0%

Josh Naylor has 5 plate appearances against Freddy Peralta in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
Expected From Contact →			0.68	0.14	0.22	0.33			0.136

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-17	Strikeout
2024-08-17	Pop Out			1%	98%
2024-08-17	Home Run	13%	18%	2%	67%
2023-06-24	GIDP			30%	69%
2023-06-24	Flyout		3%		97%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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