Matchup Machine

Josh Naylor

Worst 15% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 28% of matchups for Josh Naylor

Extreme advantage for Naylor

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.7%	5.0%	19.1%	5.4%	9.6%
MLB (+/-)	-0.1	+0.7	+5.1	-4.3	-15.6
Naylor	+0.1	-0.0	+1.3	-1.5	-6.0
Gomber	-0.5	+0.6	+2.9	-2.5	-6.8

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.7%

5.0%

19.1%

5.4%

9.6%

MLB (+/-)

-0.1

+0.7

+5.1

-4.3

-15.6

Naylor

+0.1

-0.0

+1.3

-1.5

-6.0

Gomber

-0.5

+0.6

+2.9

-2.5

-6.8

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	1	0	1	0	3	0	.200
Expected From Contact →			0.59	0.14	0.19	0.27			.118

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-04-24	Strikeout
2023-04-24	Groundout		5%	25%	70%
2022-06-15	Double	14%	14%	1%	71%
2022-06-15	Strikeout
2022-06-15	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	57%	100	LHB vs LHP	22	20%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

57%

100

LHB vs LHP

20%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	61%	101	Fastball	16	45%
⭐⭐	44%	108	Breaking	-26	37%
⭐	23%	78	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
⭐⭐	62%	92	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
⭐	58%	74	Slider	-6	20%
	70%	49	Changeup	0	18%
⭐⭐	59%	109	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

61%

101

Fastball

45%

⭐⭐

44%

108

Breaking

-26

37%

⭐

23%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

⭐⭐

62%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

⭐

58%

Slider

-6

20%

70%

Changeup

18%

⭐⭐

59%

109

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	66%	38	Away / Glove Side	38	17%
⭐⭐	76%	103	Bottom of zone	13	13%
⭐⭐	83%	84	Top of zone	-3	12%
	83%	49	Middle	45	7%
	82%	89	In / Arm Side	52	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

66%

Away / Glove Side

17%

⭐⭐

76%

103

Bottom of zone

13%

⭐⭐

83%

Top of zone

-3

12%

83%

Middle

82%

In / Arm Side

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	41%	94	Away / Glove Side	41	34%
⭐	51%	76	Below the zone	22	30%
⭐⭐	54%	100	Above the zone	8	24%
	41%	21	In / Arm Side	19	10%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

41%

Away / Glove Side

34%

⭐

51%

Below the zone

30%

⭐⭐

54%

100

Above the zone

24%

41%

In / Arm Side

10%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	52%	102	First Pitch	10	28%
	65%	40	Batter Behind	0	28%
⭐⭐	63%	117	Batter Ahead	4	26%
⭐	71%	68	2 Strikes	-23	26%
⭐⭐	65%	106	3 Balls	2	8%
⭐⭐	74%	90	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

52%

102

First Pitch

28%

65%

Batter Behind

28%

⭐⭐

63%

117

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐

71%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

⭐⭐

65%

106

3 Balls

⭐⭐

74%

Full Count

-9