Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rafael Devers

matchup for Shota Imanaga

90th out of 436 (Best 21%)

Shota Imanaga

matchup for Rafael Devers

492nd out of 567 (Worst 13%)

Moderate advantage for Imanaga

Rafael Devers has a 26.9% chance of reaching base vs Shota Imanaga, which is 6.5% lower than Devers's typical expectations, and 1.9% lower than batters facing Imanaga.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	26.9%	18.9%	3.3%	5.6%	10.0%	8.1%	32.7%
Devers	-6.5	-3.0	+0.3	+0.2	-3.5	-3.5	+4.3
Imanaga	-1.9	-3.2	-0.1	-0.4	-2.7	+1.3	+8.0

Rafael Devers is worse vs left-handed pitching. Shota Imanaga is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Devers has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Shota Imanaga throws a 4-seam fastball 52% of the time. Rafael Devers has an F grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

52%

Splitter (L)

31%

Slider (L)

10% of Shota Imanaga's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 10%

+4%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Weak Challenge 4%

-5%

62% of Shota Imanaga's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 40% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 62%

+40%

Offspeed (L) 35%

+22%

Very Slow Velo 36%

+20%

High Ride 27%

+17%

17.2% of Rafael Devers's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Shota Imanaga strikes out 17.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +0.2% 4%

Walk +0.3% -2.9% 41%

In Play -4.7% +2.7% 39%

On Base -1.3% -5.5% 31%

Hit -1.6% -2.6% 14%

Single -1.6% -2.0% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% -1.5% 3%

Home Run +1.2% +0.9%

34.5% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Shota Imanaga induces Standard Grounders at a 30.5% rate, which is 3.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.1% -3.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.3% -0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -1.6% -2.7% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% -1.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% +1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.1% +5.3% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +3.0%

37.9% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 19.3% of batted balls allowed by Shota Imanaga are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.0% -4.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.4% -4.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +3.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% +9.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% -5.1%

9.8% of Rafael Devers's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 15.5% of batted balls allowed by Shota Imanaga are hit at this angle, which is 4.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% +1.3% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% -7.6% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% -3.9% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% +1.0% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +4.1% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% +4.2%

Rafael Devers has 3 plate appearances against Shota Imanaga in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.62	0.00	0.02	0.60			0.207

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-26	Strikeout
2024-04-26	Single		2%	60%	38%
2024-04-26	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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