Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rafael Devers

matchup for Clarke Schmidt

331st out of 436 (Worst 24%)

Clarke Schmidt

matchup for Rafael Devers

323rd out of 567 (Worst 43%)

Moderate advantage for Devers

Rafael Devers has a 34.1% chance of reaching base vs Clarke Schmidt, which is 0.7% higher than Devers's typical expectations, and 2.1% higher than batters facing Schmidt.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.1%	18.2%	2.7%	3.8%	11.7%	15.9%	26.3%
Devers	+0.7	-3.7	-0.3	-1.6	-1.8	+4.4	-2.1
Schmidt	+2.1	-1.4	+0.3	-0.3	-1.4	+3.5	+1.3

Rafael Devers is better vs right-handed pitching. Clarke Schmidt is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Devers has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Clarke Schmidt throws a Slider 28% of the time. Rafael Devers has an A grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

28%

Cutter (R)

24%

Sinker (R)

23%

Kn-Curve (R)

19%

11% of Clarke Schmidt's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 11%

+3%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

34% of Clarke Schmidt's pitches are classified as Just Gravity, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Just Gravity 34%

+21%

Breaking (R) 47%

+16%

Slow Velo 29%

+14%

Large Break 18%

+13%

17.2% of Rafael Devers's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Clarke Schmidt strikes out 15.8% of the batters he faces, which is 0.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +0.3% 4%

Walk +0.3% +1.6% 41%

In Play -4.7% -1.9% 39%

On Base -1.3% -0.3% 31%

Hit -1.6% -2.0% 14%

Single -1.6% -1.1% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% -0.8% 3%

Home Run +1.2% 0.0%

34.5% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Clarke Schmidt induces Standard Grounders at a 33.7% rate, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.1% -0.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.3% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -1.6% +0.7% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% -1.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.1% -1.4% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +3.3%

37.9% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Clarke Schmidt are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.0% -0.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.4% +2.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% -1.6%

9.8% of Rafael Devers's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 12.8% of batted balls allowed by Clarke Schmidt are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% -0.3% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% -1.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -3.7% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% +4.4%

Rafael Devers has 17 plate appearances against Clarke Schmidt in the last 3 years. He is 7 for 15 with 2 home runs, a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	17	15	7	2	1	4	3	2	0.467
Expected From Contact →			5.89	1.81	0.49	3.60			0.393

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-13	Single		6%	66%	28%
2024-09-13	Flyout				99%
2024-09-13	Walk
2023-09-14	Home Run	83%	12%	2%	3%
2023-09-14	Hit By Pitch
2023-09-14	Single		17%	52%	31%
2023-08-20	Double		5%	30%	65%
2023-08-20	Home Run	98%	1%
2023-08-20	Single		3%	87%	11%
2023-06-18	Walk
2023-06-18	Groundout			13%	87%
2023-06-18	Single		3%	76%	21%
2023-06-11	Strikeout
2023-06-11	Strikeout
2022-09-22	Groundout		1%	32%	67%
2022-09-14	Strikeout
2022-04-10	Groundout			2%	98%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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