Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rafael Devers

matchup for Seth Lugo

365th out of 436 (Worst 17%)

Seth Lugo

matchup for Rafael Devers

162nd out of 567 (Best 29%)

Strong advantage for Devers

Rafael Devers has a 36.1% chance of reaching base vs Seth Lugo, which is 2.7% higher than Devers's typical expectations, and 3.6% higher than batters facing Lugo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.1%	23.7%	3.6%	5.0%	15.1%	12.4%	27.8%
Devers	+2.7	+1.9	+0.6	-0.4	+1.7	+0.8	-0.6
Lugo	+3.6	-0.2	+0.5	+0.1	-0.7	+3.8	+2.9

Rafael Devers is better vs right-handed pitching. Seth Lugo is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Devers has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Seth Lugo throws a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time. Rafael Devers has a C+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

29%

Curve (R)

28%

Sinker (R)

17%

Slider (R)

13%

Changeup (R)

10% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

25% of Seth Lugo's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 25%

+20%

Large Break 18%

+13%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Breaking (R) 41%

+10%

17.2% of Rafael Devers's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +0.8% 4%

Walk +0.3% -2.3% 41%

In Play -4.7% +1.4% 39%

On Base -1.3% -0.4% 31%

Hit -1.6% +1.9% 14%

Single -1.6% +0.7% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% +1.1% 3%

Home Run +1.2% +0.1%

34.5% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Seth Lugo induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +1.4% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.1% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.3% -1.6% 14%

Low Screamer -1.6% +0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +2.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% -0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.1% -0.1% 3%

Pop up -0.5% -2.2%

37.9% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.0% +1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.4% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% +0.8% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% -1.6%

9.8% of Rafael Devers's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 14.0% of batted balls allowed by Seth Lugo are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% +2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% -0.2% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -1.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% +2.6% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% -2.9%

Rafael Devers has 5 plate appearances against Seth Lugo in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.63	0.42	0.31	0.90			0.325

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-06	Flyout		7%		92%
2024-08-06	Flyout				99%
2024-07-13	Single		2%	68%	30%
2024-07-13	Home Run	42%	22%		36%
2024-07-13	Groundout			20%	80%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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