Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rafael Devers

matchup for Caleb Thielbar

138th out of 436 (Best 32%)

Caleb Thielbar

matchup for Rafael Devers

434th out of 567 (Worst 24%)

Leans in favor of Thielbar

Rafael Devers has a 30.7% chance of reaching base vs Caleb Thielbar, which is 2.7% lower than Devers's typical expectations, and 1.2% lower than batters facing Thielbar.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.7%	19.4%	3.9%	3.9%	11.6%	11.2%	34.9%
Devers	-2.7	-2.4	+0.9	-1.5	-1.9	-0.3	+6.5
Thielbar	-1.2	-2.4	+0.6	-1.1	-1.9	+1.2	+6.9

Rafael Devers is worse vs left-handed pitching. Caleb Thielbar is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Devers has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Caleb Thielbar throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Rafael Devers has an F grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

49%

Slider (L)

29%

Curve (L)

22%

16% of Caleb Thielbar's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 16%

+5%

Strong Challenge 9%

+4%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Meatball 3%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-3%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

50% of Caleb Thielbar's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A grade against this type of pitch from left handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (L) 50%

+21%

Small Break 29%

+21%

Slow Lob 22%

+18%

Extreme Drop 22%

+17%

17.2% of Rafael Devers's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Caleb Thielbar strikes out 18.8% of the batters he faces, which is 5.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +5.2% 4%

Walk +0.3% +1.9% 41%

In Play -4.7% -7.1% 39%

On Base -1.3% -6.1% 31%

Hit -1.6% -8.0% 14%

Single -1.6% -4.3% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% -3.9% 3%

Home Run +1.2% +0.2%

34.5% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Caleb Thielbar induces Standard Grounders at a 31.6% rate, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.1% -2.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.3% -3.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.6% -0.5% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% -1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% -0.7% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.9% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.1% +2.4% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +5.0%

37.9% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 23.3% of batted balls allowed by Caleb Thielbar are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.0% +2.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.4% +1.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% +2.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -4.6% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% -1.0%

9.8% of Rafael Devers's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Caleb Thielbar are hit at this angle, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% -1.3% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% -4.6% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% -1.7% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% +2.3% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -2.3% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -0.8% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +1.3% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% +7.1%

Rafael Devers has 4 plate appearances against Caleb Thielbar in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 3 with 2 doubles and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	3	3	0	2	1	0	1	1.000
Expected From Contact →			2.16	0.40	1.09	0.67			0.721

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-03	Double	40%	35%		24%
2023-04-18	Double		52%	31%	17%
2022-08-30	Walk
2022-04-17	Single		22%	35%	43%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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