Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rafael Devers

matchup for Marcus Stroman

386th out of 436 (Worst 12%)

Marcus Stroman

matchup for Rafael Devers

25th out of 567 (Best 5%)

Extreme advantage for Devers

Rafael Devers has a 40.1% chance of reaching base vs Marcus Stroman, which is 6.7% higher than Devers's typical expectations, and 2.4% higher than batters facing Stroman.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	40.1%	29.2%	3.2%	7.6%	18.5%	10.8%	19.5%
Devers	+6.7	+7.4	+0.1	+2.2	+5.1	-0.7	-8.9
Stroman	+2.4	+0.4	+0.4	+1.7	-1.8	+2.1	+1.4

Rafael Devers is better vs right-handed pitching. Marcus Stroman is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Devers has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Marcus Stroman throws a Sinker 40% of the time. Rafael Devers has an A+ grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

40%

Slider (R)

18%

Cutter (R)

15%

Splitter (R)

11%

Curve (R)

10%

4-Seam (R)

22% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+3%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

37% of Marcus Stroman's pitches are classified as Small Drop, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Drop 37%

+24%

Medium Velo 29%

+18%

17.2% of Rafael Devers's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Marcus Stroman strikes out 13.5% of the batters he faces, which is 3.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% -3.1% 4%

Walk +0.3% -0.8% 41%

In Play -4.7% +3.9% 39%

On Base -1.3% +3.0% 31%

Hit -1.6% +3.8% 14%

Single -1.6% +2.4% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% +2.4% 3%

Home Run +1.2% -1.1%

34.5% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Marcus Stroman induces Standard Grounders at a 43.6% rate, which is 9.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.1% +9.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.3% +4.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.6% -1.9% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% +0.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% -1.4% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.1% -6.1% 3%

Pop up -0.5% -1.9%

37.9% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 28.8% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.0% -1.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.4% +0.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -1.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% +4.4%

9.8% of Rafael Devers's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 7.4% of batted balls allowed by Marcus Stroman are hit at this angle, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% +7.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% +3.2% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% +2.6% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% +0.5% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% -2.6% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -4.0% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% -2.6% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% -4.4%

Rafael Devers has 7 plate appearances against Marcus Stroman in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 7.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.143
Expected From Contact →			1.32	0.04	0.17	1.11			0.188

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-27	Flyout	4%	4%		92%
2024-07-27	Single		11%	26%	62%
2024-06-16	Flyout				99%
2024-06-16	GIDP			52%	48%
2024-06-16	Sac Fly				100%
2023-07-15	Groundout			13%	87%
2023-07-15	Groundout			19%	81%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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