Matchup Machine

Rafael Devers

Worst 5% of matchups for Nathan Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi

Best 23% of matchups for Rafael Devers

Extreme advantage for Devers

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	5.1%	3.9%	11.3%	12.4%	15.8%
MLB (+/-)	+2.3	-0.3	-2.6	+2.7	-9.5
Devers	+0.7	-0.5	-1.1	+1.5	-5.8
Eovaldi	+1.9	-0.3	-1.6	+1.4	-4.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

5.1%

3.9%

11.3%

12.4%

15.8%

MLB (+/-)

+2.3

-0.3

-2.6

+2.7

-9.5

Devers

+0.7

-0.5

-1.1

+1.5

-5.8

Eovaldi

+1.9

-0.3

-1.6

+1.4

-4.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	.200
Expected From Contact →			1.08	0.69	0.23	0.16			.215

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	GIDP			11%	88%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-07-06	Groundout			3%	97%
2023-07-06	Flyout	69%	4%		28%
2023-07-06	Double		19%		79%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	53%	102	LHB vs RHP	31	43%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

53%

102

LHB vs RHP

43%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	51%	78	Fastball	42	55%
	13%	70	Offspeed	85	27%
⭐	23%	82	Breaking	22	18%
			------------------
⭐	50%	72	Four-Seam FB	25	37%
	54%	15	Splitter	91	26%	⭐⭐
	53%	64	Cutter	31	17%
⭐	65%	73	Curveball	25	13%
⭐⭐	64%	89	Slider	20	5%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

51%

Fastball

55%

13%

Offspeed

27%

⭐

23%

Breaking

18%

------------------

⭐

50%

Four-Seam FB

37%

54%

Splitter

26%

⭐⭐

53%

Cutter

17%

⭐

65%

Curveball

13%

⭐⭐

64%

Slider

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	73%	47	Bottom of zone	29	15%
	79%	61	Away / Arm Side	24	12%
⭐	71%	88	In / Glove Side	33	9%
	81%	48	Top of zone	47	8%
	82%	93	Middle	58	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

73%

Bottom of zone

15%

79%

Away / Arm Side

12%

⭐

71%

In / Glove Side

81%

Top of zone

82%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	47%	87	Below the zone	44	42%
	41%	39	In / Glove Side	27	27%
⭐	36%	100	Away / Arm Side	49	22%
⭐⭐	35%	100	Above the zone	38	15%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

47%

Below the zone

42%

41%

In / Glove Side

27%

⭐

36%

100

Away / Arm Side

22%

⭐⭐

35%

100

Above the zone

15%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	60%	111	2 Strikes	30	30%
	54%	78	Batter Behind	49	29%
⭐⭐	62%	83	Batter Ahead	21	27%
⭐	38%	83	First Pitch	39	26%
⭐⭐	67%	114	3 Balls	-6	8%
⭐⭐	75%	125	Full Count	-52	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

60%

111

2 Strikes

30%

54%

Batter Behind

29%

⭐⭐

62%

Batter Ahead

27%

⭐

38%

First Pitch

26%

⭐⭐

67%

114

3 Balls

-6

⭐⭐

75%

125

Full Count

-52