Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rafael Devers

matchup for Lance Lynn

389th out of 436 (Worst 11%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Rafael Devers

104th out of 567 (Best 19%)

Extreme advantage for Devers

Rafael Devers has a 36.2% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 2.8% higher than Devers's typical expectations, and 3.3% higher than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.2%	24.5%	3.4%	6.7%	14.4%	11.7%	23.6%
Devers	+2.8	+2.7	+0.4	+1.3	+1.0	+0.1	-4.8
Lynn	+3.3	+0.4	+0.3	+0.9	-0.8	+2.9	+3.8

Rafael Devers is better vs right-handed pitching. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Devers has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Rafael Devers has a C+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Devers has an A- grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

17.2% of Rafael Devers's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +4.4% +1.3% 4%

Walk +0.3% -1.6% 41%

In Play -4.7% +0.3% 39%

On Base -1.3% -2.3% 31%

Hit -1.6% -0.6% 14%

Single -1.6% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +1.2% -0.4%

34.5% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.1% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.3% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer -1.6% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.3% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.3% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.9% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter +0.6% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.1% +0.7% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +1.6%

37.9% of Rafael Devers's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 13.6% higher than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.0% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.4% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.0% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.2% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +13.6% -0.4%

9.8% of Rafael Devers's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% lower than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +3.3% -2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° -0.1% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° -2.0% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° -0.1% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.7% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% +2.4%

Rafael Devers has 7 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 5 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	5	3	0	0	3	0	2	0.600
Expected From Contact →			1.52	0.00	0.11	1.41			0.305

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-25	Groundout			33%	67%
2023-08-25	Single		2%	67%	31%
2023-08-25	Walk
2023-08-25	Flyout				99%
2023-06-24	Single			39%	61%
2023-06-24	Walk
2023-06-24	Single		8%	3%	89%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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