Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Danny Jansen

matchup for Aaron Civale

263rd out of 436 (Worst 40%)

Aaron Civale

matchup for Danny Jansen

467th out of 567 (Worst 18%)

Leans in favor of Jansen

Danny Jansen has a 30.8% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 3.8% lower than Jansen's typical expectations, and 1.4% higher than batters facing Civale.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.8%	19.4%	2.6%	4.6%	12.2%	11.4%	21.1%
Jansen	-3.8	-0.6	+0.0	-0.4	-0.3	-3.2	-1.6
Civale	+1.4	-2.1	-0.6	+0.3	-1.8	+3.5	-0.3

Danny Jansen is slightly better vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Jansen has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Danny Jansen has an A+ grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

21%

Curve (R)

20%

4-Seam (R)

11%

Slider (R)

10%

21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Danny Jansen has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Danny Jansen has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 20%

+15%

Medium Break 24%

+15%

Extreme Slow Velo 16%

+11%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

12.1% of Danny Jansen's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.3% +0.4% 3%

Walk +3.5% -1.3% 39%

In Play +0.8% +1.0% 39%

On Base -4.1% -0.9% 31%

Hit -7.6% +0.5% 14%

Single -4.5% 0.0% 13%

2B / 3B -4.0% +0.3% 3%

Home Run +0.9% +0.1%

26.8% of Danny Jansen's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.6% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.2% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.6% +0.1% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.3% -0.7% 14%

Low Screamer -0.6% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner -2.3% +1.8% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +1.5% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +2.9% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.6% -0.7% 3%

Pop up +3.5% +1.8%

24.8% of Danny Jansen's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.2% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.2% +1.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.0% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +3.5% -3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.5% +0.7%

13.0% of Danny Jansen's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. 11.7% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%