matchup for Luis Castillo
matchup for Danny Jansen
3
Danny Jansen has a 31.2% chance of reaching base vs Luis Castillo, which is 3.2% lower than Jansen's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Castillo.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 31.2% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 23.0% |
| Jansen | -3.2 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.7 | -0.4 | -4.0 | +0.7 |
| Castillo | +0.4 | -2.6 | -0.1 | +0.6 | -3.1 | +3.0 | -1.7 |
Danny Jansen is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Luis Castillo is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Jansen has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.
Luis Castillo throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Danny Jansen has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
40%
Slider (R)
21%
Sinker (R)
20%
Changeup (R)
19%
6% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Danny Jansen has an F grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Mid Challenge
12%
+1%
Chaser
7%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Weak Challenge
8%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
-1%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
Meatball
4%
-3%
43% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Danny Jansen has an A- grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Extreme Break
43%
+28%
Very Fast Velo
29%
+21%
Medium Drop
24%
+11%
12.2% of Danny Jansen's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.0% lower than the league average. Luis Castillo strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Strikeout
-4.0%
+7.2%
3%
Walk
+3.8%
-1.4%
39%
In Play
+0.2%
-5.8%
39%
On Base
-4.1%
-5.8%
31%
Hit
-7.9%
-4.4%
14%
Single
-4.6%
-2.1%
13%
2B / 3B
-4.2%
-1.8%
3%
Home Run
+0.9%
-0.5%
26.7% of Danny Jansen's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.7% lower than the league average. Luis Castillo induces Standard Grounders at a 37.2% rate, which is 2.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+1.2%
-0.4%
34%
Standard Grounder
-7.7%
+2.8%
7%
Hard Grounder
-2.3%
+0.6%
14%
Low Screamer
-0.6%
+0.7%
9%
Rising Liner
-2.3%
-0.3%
4%
Maybe Homer
+0.1%
+0.9%
3%
Likely Homer
+1.5%
-0.2%
1%
No Doubter
+2.9%
-0.2%
20%
Routine Flyout
+3.8%
-3.9%
3%
Pop up
+3.4%
0.0%
24.8% of Danny Jansen's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 25.3% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+0.1%
+2.0%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-1.1%
+0.9%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-3.0%
-0.7%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+3.5%
-3.2%
24%
Above 100 mph
+0.5%
+1.0%
13.2% of Danny Jansen's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.7% higher than the league average. 11.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at this angle, which is 0.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-4.1%
+1.2%
12%
-10 to 0°
-2.7%
+2.1%
8%
1 to 6°
-2.3%
-0.6%
18%
7 to 18°
-2.5%
-1.2%
15%
19 to 28°
+4.8%
-1.6%
11%
29 to 38°
+1.7%
0.0%
7%
39 to 50°
+0.9%
-1.3%
8%
Above 50°
+4.1%
+1.3%
Danny Jansen has 8 plate appearances against Luis Castillo in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 8 with 5 strikeouts.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.027 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-07-05 | Pop Out | 99% | |||
| 2024-07-05 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-07-05 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-10-07 | Flyout | 10% | 3% | 87% | |
| 2022-10-07 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-10-07 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-05-20 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-05-20 | Groundout | 8% | 92% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
