Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Thairo Estrada

matchup for Tyler Mahle

244th out of 436 (Worst 44%)

Tyler Mahle

matchup for Thairo Estrada

out of 567 (Worst %)

Leans in favor of Estrada

Thairo Estrada has a 29.2% chance of reaching base vs Tyler Mahle, which is 0.5% higher than Estrada's typical expectations, and 1.2% lower than batters facing Mahle.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.2%	23.5%	3.4%	4.5%	15.5%	5.7%	22.0%
Estrada	-0.5	-0.7	+1.0	-1.0	-0.8	+0.2	+1.1
Mahle	-1.2	+2.5	0.0	+0.3	+2.2	-3.6	-3.1

Thairo Estrada is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Tyler Mahle is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Estrada has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Tyler Mahle throws a 4-seam fastball 55% of the time. Thairo Estrada has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

55%

Slider (R)

19%

Splitter (R)

16%

Curve (R)

9% of Tyler Mahle's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Thairo Estrada has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Weak Challenge 4%

-4%

54% of Tyler Mahle's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 33% higher than the MLB average. Thairo Estrada has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 54%

+33%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+9%

Medium Ride 22%

+8%

12.0% of Thairo Estrada's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Tyler Mahle strikes out 23.6% of the batters he faces, which is 10.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.3% +10.2% 6%

Walk -5.3% -1.2% 36%

In Play +9.6% -9.0% 39%

On Base -1.3% -5.6% 31%

Hit +4.0% -4.3% 14%

Single +2.1% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +2.2% -1.4% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -1.4%

44.3% of Thairo Estrada's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 9.9% higher than the league average. Tyler Mahle induces Standard Grounders at a 32.1% rate, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.2% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +9.9% -2.3% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.0% -2.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% -0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.6% +1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -1.4% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.2% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -5.9% +3.0% 3%

Pop up +2.6% +1.2%

14.7% of Thairo Estrada's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% lower than the league average. 21.4% of batted balls allowed by Tyler Mahle are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.1% -0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +3.7% -0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.8% +1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.0% +3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -9.6% -3.0%

10.1% of Thairo Estrada's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 14.3% of batted balls allowed by Tyler Mahle are hit at this angle, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.0% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -0.1% 8%

1 to 6° +1.5% -1.6% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% -0.2% 15%

19 to 28° -3.2% -1.3% 11%

29 to 38° -1.3% +2.9% 7%

39 to 50° -2.8% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.3% +3.5%

Thairo Estrada has 5 plate appearances against Tyler Mahle in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
Expected From Contact →			1.15	0.00	0.55	0.59			0.229

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-06-26	Flyout				99%
2022-06-26	Groundout			19%	81%
2022-05-29	Double		54%	5%	41%
2022-05-29	Hit By Pitch
2022-05-29	Groundout			35%	64%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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