Matchup Machine

Thairo Estrada

Best 32% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Worst 39% of matchups for Thairo Estrada

Leans in favor of Estrada

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.6%	3.5%	17.3%	4.8%	14.4%
MLB (+/-)	-0.2	-0.7	+3.4	-5.0	-10.8
Estrada	+0.0	-0.6	+1.4	-1.9	-5.6
Gomber	-0.6	-0.8	+1.1	-3.1	-1.9

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.6%

3.5%

17.3%

4.8%

14.4%

MLB (+/-)

-0.2

-0.7

+3.4

-5.0

-10.8

Estrada

+0.0

-0.6

+1.4

-1.9

-5.6

Gomber

-0.6

-0.8

+1.1

-3.1

-1.9

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	10	3	0	1	2	2	0	.300
Expected From Contact →			2.15	0.05	0.88	1.21			.215

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-09-29	Single			76%	24%
2022-09-21	Flyout				98%
2022-09-21	Strikeout
2022-06-09	Triple	5%	49%	2%	44%
2022-06-09	Groundout			4%	95%
2022-06-09	Strikeout
2022-05-09	Groundout			9%	91%
2022-05-09	Forceout			3%	97%
2021-08-13	Single		37%	24%	39%
2021-08-13	Lineout				99%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	52%	16	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

52%

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	52%	70	Fastball	16	45%
	38%	40	Breaking	-26	37%
	12%	26	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
	57%	47	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
	57%	47	Slider	-6	20%
	57%	30	Changeup	0	18%
	59%	-9	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

52%

Fastball

45%

38%

Breaking

-26

37%

12%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

57%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

57%

Slider

-6

20%

57%

Changeup

18%

59%

-9

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	74%	73	Bottom of zone	13	13%
⭐⭐	70%	83	Top of zone	-3	12%
	53%	36	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
	61%	8	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
⭐	80%	64	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

74%

Bottom of zone

13%

⭐⭐

70%

Top of zone

-3

12%

53%

Away / Arm Side

11%

61%

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

⭐

80%

Middle

-23

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	41%	-1	Below the zone	22	30%
	49%	27	In / Glove Side	30	24%
	51%	46	Above the zone	8	24%
⭐⭐	35%	81	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

41%

-1

Below the zone

30%

49%

In / Glove Side

24%

51%

Above the zone

24%

⭐⭐

35%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	37%	35	First Pitch	10	28%
	61%	43	Batter Behind	0	28%
⭐⭐	54%	83	Batter Ahead	4	26%
	68%	41	2 Strikes	-23	26%
⭐	65%	69	3 Balls	2	8%
⭐	76%	70	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

37%

First Pitch

28%

61%

Batter Behind

28%

⭐⭐

54%

Batter Ahead

26%

68%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

⭐

65%

3 Balls

⭐

76%

Full Count

-9