Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Thairo Estrada

matchup for Zack Wheeler

336th out of 436 (Worst 23%)

Zack Wheeler

matchup for Thairo Estrada

496th out of 567 (Worst 12%)

Moderate advantage for Wheeler

Thairo Estrada has a 25.4% chance of reaching base vs Zack Wheeler, which is 4.2% lower than Estrada's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Wheeler.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	25.4%	20.9%	2.6%	5.8%	12.5%	4.5%	27.1%
Estrada	-4.2	-3.3	+0.2	+0.3	-3.8	-1.0	+6.1
Wheeler	-0.4	+3.2	+0.1	+1.4	+1.7	-3.6	-5.3

Thairo Estrada is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Zack Wheeler is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Estrada has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Zack Wheeler throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Thairo Estrada has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

42%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

19%

Curve (R)

11%

13% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Thairo Estrada has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 3%

-3%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

32% of Zack Wheeler's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Thairo Estrada has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 32%

+17%

Fastball (R) 64%

+11%

12.0% of Thairo Estrada's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.3% lower than the league average. Zack Wheeler strikes out 21.0% of the batters he faces, which is 7.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.3% +7.9% 6%

Walk -5.3% -2.6% 36%

In Play +9.6% -5.3% 39%

On Base -1.3% -6.2% 31%

Hit +4.0% -3.6% 14%

Single +2.1% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B +2.2% -1.2% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -1.0%

44.3% of Thairo Estrada's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 9.9% higher than the league average. Zack Wheeler induces Standard Grounders at a 41.6% rate, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +1.2% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +9.9% +7.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -3.0% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer -1.4% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner -1.5% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.6% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -1.4% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter +0.2% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -5.9% -4.7% 3%

Pop up +2.6% +0.7%

14.7% of Thairo Estrada's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.6% lower than the league average. 21.7% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.1% +5.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +3.7% +1.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.8% -1.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -1.0% -3.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -9.6% -2.6%

10.1% of Thairo Estrada's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Zack Wheeler are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.0% +4.4% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.3% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.5% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% +0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -3.2% -0.6% 11%

29 to 38° -1.3% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° -2.8% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.3% -0.6%

Thairo Estrada has 9 plate appearances against Zack Wheeler in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 9 with 5 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	2	0	0	2	5	0	0.222
Expected From Contact →			1.88	0.00	0.29	1.59			0.209

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-28	Strikeout
2024-05-28	Single		29%	64%	7%
2024-05-28	Strikeout
2024-05-06	Field Error
2024-05-06	Strikeout
2024-05-06	Strikeout
2023-05-16	Lineout			25%	75%
2023-05-16	Single			70%	30%
2023-05-16	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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