Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willy Adames

matchup for Jared Jones

339th out of 436 (Worst 22%)

Jared Jones

matchup for Willy Adames

212th out of 567 (Best 38%)

Moderate advantage for Adames

Willy Adames has a 31.0% chance of reaching base vs Jared Jones, which is 0.7% higher than Adames's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Jones.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.0%	21.0%	4.9%	5.1%	11.0%	10.0%	31.2%
Adames	+0.7	+0.6	+1.0	+0.6	-1.0	+0.1	+2.8
Jones	-0.1	+0.2	+2.0	+0.1	-1.9	-0.3	+2.6

Willy Adames is better vs right-handed pitching. Jared Jones is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Adames has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Jared Jones throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Willy Adames has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Slider (R)

35%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

17% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Willy Adames has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 17%

+6%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-4%

36% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Willy Adames has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Extreme Fast Velo 18%

+15%

Breaking (R) 44%

+13%

High Ride 22%

+11%

16.8% of Willy Adames's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.7% higher than the league average. Jared Jones strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.7% +0.4% 4%

Walk +1.7% +0.6% 42%

In Play -5.4% -1.1% 39%

On Base -1.7% -0.1% 31%

Hit -3.4% -0.8% 14%

Single -3.1% -1.1% 13%

2B / 3B -2.7% -0.5% 3%

Home Run +2.5% +0.9%

29.9% of Willy Adames's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.6% lower than the league average. Jared Jones induces Standard Grounders at a 30.0% rate, which is 4.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.6% -4.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -1.2% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.6% +1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +2.0% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.6% +1.5% 3%

Pop up +1.1% +2.5%

25.8% of Willy Adames's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.5% higher than the league average. 24.7% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% +1.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.6% -4.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.8% -2.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph 0.0% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.5% +0.4%

12.6% of Willy Adames's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.2% higher than the league average. 8.9% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.8% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% -0.1% 8%

1 to 6° -0.7% -2.6% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% -1.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.5% +4.0% 11%

29 to 38° +1.2% -2.6% 7%

39 to 50° +2.6% -0.5% 8%

Above 50° +2.9% +2.4%

Willy Adames has 3 plate appearances against Jared Jones in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.55	0.24	0.24	0.07			0.182

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-22	Strikeout
2024-04-22	Flyout	24%	24%		52%
2024-04-22	Groundout			6%	94%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe