matchup for Ryne Nelson
matchup for Willy Adames
1
Willy Adames has a 28.1% chance of reaching base vs Ryne Nelson, which is 1.7% lower than Adames's typical expectations, and 2.0% lower than batters facing Nelson.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 28.1% | 21.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 30.8% |
| Adames | -1.7 | +1.8 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +1.0 | -3.5 | +2.5 |
| Nelson | -2.0 | -1.7 | +1.8 | -0.1 | -3.4 | -0.3 | +4.7 |
Willy Adames is better vs right-handed pitching. Ryne Nelson is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Adames has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Ryne Nelson throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Willy Adames has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
56%
Cutter (R)
15%
Slider (R)
11%
Changeup (R)
11%
Curve (R)
6%
15% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Willy Adames has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
15%
+4%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Meatball
6%
+0%
Fringe Miss
12%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
-1%
Weak Challenge
7%
-1%
Chaser
5%
-1%
Non-Competitive
9%
-3%
29% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Willy Adames has a B grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
High Ride
29%
+19%
Fastball (R)
72%
+18%
Small Break
25%
+16%
Fast Velo
29%
+14%
16.8% of Willy Adames's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.6% higher than the league average. Ryne Nelson strikes out 13.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.
13%
Strikeout
+3.6%
-2.9%
3%
Walk
+1.9%
-2.2%
42%
In Play
-5.5%
+5.2%
39%
On Base
-1.4%
+0.3%
31%
Hit
-3.3%
+2.6%
14%
Single
-3.1%
+1.0%
13%
2B / 3B
-2.6%
+1.5%
3%
Home Run
+2.4%
+0.1%
29.8% of Willy Adames's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.6% lower than the league average. Ryne Nelson induces Standard Grounders at a 35.2% rate, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.2%
-0.5%
34%
Standard Grounder
-4.6%
+0.8%
7%
Hard Grounder
-0.6%
-2.3%
14%
Low Screamer
-1.2%
+0.8%
9%
Rising Liner
-0.2%
+2.9%
4%
Maybe Homer
+0.6%
-1.2%
3%
Likely Homer
+2.0%
-1.0%
1%
No Doubter
+0.5%
-0.2%
20%
Routine Flyout
+2.5%
+1.2%
3%
Pop up
+1.1%
-0.6%
25.9% of Willy Adames's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. 29.3% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 5.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+0.2%
-1.5%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-2.6%
-1.9%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+0.9%
+0.4%
19%
94 to 99 mph
0.0%
-2.0%
24%
Above 100 mph
+1.6%
+5.0%
12.6% of Willy Adames's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.2% higher than the league average. 10.6% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-4.8%
+2.1%
12%
-10 to 0°
-1.0%
-0.3%
8%
1 to 6°
-0.6%
-2.4%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.7%
+5.0%
15%
19 to 28°
+0.4%
-4.3%
11%
29 to 38°
+1.2%
-0.9%
7%
39 to 50°
+2.5%
+0.7%
8%
Above 50°
+2.9%
+0.1%
Willy Adames has 3 plate appearances against Ryne Nelson in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 3.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 2.77 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 2.08 | 0.923 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2023-10-03 | Single | 2% | 90% | 8% | |
| 2023-06-20 | Single | 28% | 60% | 12% | |
| 2023-06-20 | Single | 39% | 58% | 3% | |
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
