Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Willy Adames

matchup for Graham Ashcraft

323rd out of 436 (Worst 26%)

Graham Ashcraft

matchup for Willy Adames

29th out of 567 (Best 6%)

Extreme advantage for Adames

Willy Adames has a 37.1% chance of reaching base vs Graham Ashcraft, which is 6.8% higher than Adames's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Ashcraft.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	37.1%	25.3%	3.3%	5.4%	16.6%	11.8%	17.6%
Adames	+6.8	+4.9	-0.6	+0.9	+4.6	+1.9	-10.8
Ashcraft	+0.2	-1.3	+1.0	+0.3	-2.6	+1.5	+1.3

Willy Adames is better vs right-handed pitching. Graham Ashcraft is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Adames has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

Graham Ashcraft throws a Cutter 51% of the time. Willy Adames has a B+ grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

51%

Slider (R)

32%

Sinker (R)

15%

14% of Graham Ashcraft's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Willy Adames has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 14%

+6%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-5%

30% of Graham Ashcraft's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Willy Adames has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 30%

+21%

Just Gravity 30%

+17%

Minimal Break 24%

+14%

Fastball (R) 67%

+13%

16.8% of Willy Adames's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.7% higher than the league average. Graham Ashcraft strikes out 10.7% of the batters he faces, which is 6.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

13%

Strikeout +3.7% -6.0% 4%

Walk +1.7% -0.9% 42%

In Play -5.4% +6.9% 39%

On Base -1.7% +7.5% 31%

Hit -3.4% +8.4% 14%

Single -3.1% +4.3% 13%

2B / 3B -2.7% +4.7% 3%

Home Run +2.5% -0.6%

29.9% of Willy Adames's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.6% lower than the league average. Graham Ashcraft induces Standard Grounders at a 41.4% rate, which is 7.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.6% +7.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.6% +0.7% 14%

Low Screamer -1.2% -2.3% 9%

Rising Liner -0.2% +0.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.6% +1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +2.0% -1.5% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.6% -3.7% 3%

Pop up +1.1% -0.5%

25.8% of Willy Adames's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.5% higher than the league average. 22.9% of batted balls allowed by Graham Ashcraft are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% -0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.6% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.8% +3.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph 0.0% -1.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +1.5% -1.4%

12.6% of Willy Adames's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.2% higher than the league average. 8.8% of batted balls allowed by Graham Ashcraft are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.8% +3.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.9% +1.8% 8%

1 to 6° -0.7% +0.7% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% 0.0% 15%

19 to 28° +0.5% -1.5% 11%

29 to 38° +1.2% -2.6% 7%

39 to 50° +2.6% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.9% -1.1%

Willy Adames has 18 plate appearances against Graham Ashcraft in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 18 with 2 home runs and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	18	18	4	2	1	1	4	0	0.222
Expected From Contact →			3.96	2.53	1.13	0.30			0.220

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-29	Single		41%	7%	52%
2024-04-08	Flyout	53%	16%		31%
2024-04-08	Flyout				100%
2024-04-08	Pop Out		2%	2%	96%
2023-07-24	Strikeout
2023-07-24	Strikeout
2023-07-24	Fielders Choice			3%	96%
2023-07-14	Pop Out				99%
2023-07-14	Double	50%	34%	1%	15%
2023-07-14	Flyout				99%
2022-09-24	Pop Out				100%
2022-09-24	Pop Out				100%
2022-08-07	Home Run	68%	6%		26%
2022-08-07	Groundout			13%	86%
2022-08-07	Flyout		6%	1%	93%
2022-06-18	Strikeout
2022-06-18	Strikeout
2022-06-18	Home Run	82%	7%		11%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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