Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Amed Rosario

matchup for Jon Gray

225th out of 436 (Worst 49%)

Jon Gray

matchup for Amed Rosario

31st out of 567 (Best 6%)

Strong advantage for Rosario

Amed Rosario has a 34.2% chance of reaching base vs Jon Gray, which is 4.6% higher than Rosario's typical expectations, and 1.1% higher than batters facing Gray.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.2%	30.7%	1.8%	5.9%	23.0%	3.5%	15.9%
Rosario	+4.6	+5.3	+0.1	+0.7	+4.6	-0.8	-5.9
Gray	+1.1	+4.3	-1.3	+0.1	+5.4	-3.2	-1.1

Amed Rosario is worse vs right-handed pitching. Jon Gray is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Rosario has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Jon Gray throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Amed Rosario has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

47%

Slider (R)

38%

Changeup (R)

Curve (R)

11% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Amed Rosario has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 11%

+3%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 6%

Chaser 6%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

41% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Amed Rosario has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 41%

+17%

Large Break 35%

+14%

Breaking (R) 44%

+14%

Medium Slow Velo 25%

+12%

12.8% of Amed Rosario's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.0% lower than the league average. Jon Gray strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.0% +3.8% 6%

Walk -4.8% -1.2% 36%

In Play +7.9% -2.6% 39%

On Base +0.9% -0.6% 31%

Hit +5.8% +0.6% 14%

Single +3.4% +0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +3.8% +0.4% 3%

Home Run -1.4% -0.6%

42.2% of Amed Rosario's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.7% higher than the league average. Jon Gray induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.2% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +7.7% +0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.8% +0.0% 14%

Low Screamer +2.2% -0.3% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.8% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer -2.3% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.9% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.8% +1.0% 3%

Pop up -0.4% +0.4%

21.7% of Amed Rosario's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.6% lower than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% -0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.4% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.1% +0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.6% +2.4%

9.5% of Amed Rosario's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +5.7% +1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.6% -1.5% 8%

1 to 6° +0.3% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +0.3% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -1.9% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° -3.2% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° -2.3% -0.6%

Amed Rosario has 8 plate appearances against Jon Gray in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 8 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	4	0	1	3	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			2.84	0.00	0.91	1.94			0.355

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-14	Forceout			9%	91%
2023-07-14	Groundout			7%	93%
2023-07-14	Single		3%	59%	39%
2022-09-23	Pop Out				100%
2022-09-23	Triple		87%	11%	1%
2022-06-07	Single			91%	8%
2022-06-07	Groundout			2%	98%
2022-06-07	Single			14%	86%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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