Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rowdy Tellez

matchup for Luis Castillo

292nd out of 436 (Worst 33%)

Luis Castillo

matchup for Rowdy Tellez

332nd out of 567 (Worst 42%)

Moderate advantage for Tellez

Rowdy Tellez has a 30.7% chance of reaching base vs Luis Castillo, which is 1.1% lower than Tellez's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Castillo.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.7%	22.8%	3.9%	4.8%	14.1%	7.9%	23.7%
Tellez	-1.1	+1.2	+0.6	-0.5	+1.1	-2.3	-0.1
Castillo	-0.1	-0.4	+0.9	-0.3	-0.9	+0.3	-0.8

Rowdy Tellez is better vs right-handed pitching. Luis Castillo is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Tellez has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Luis Castillo throws a 4-seam fastball 40% of the time. Rowdy Tellez has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

40%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

19%

6% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Rowdy Tellez has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-3%

43% of Luis Castillo's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Rowdy Tellez has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 43%

+28%

Very Fast Velo 29%

+21%

Medium Drop 24%

+11%

13.4% of Rowdy Tellez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.0% lower than the league average. Luis Castillo strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 7.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.0% +7.2% 4%

Walk -0.2% -1.4% 39%

In Play +2.2% -5.8% 39%

On Base -0.3% -5.8% 31%

Hit -0.1% -4.4% 14%

Single -0.1% -2.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.1% -1.8% 3%

Home Run +0.1% -0.5%

27.4% of Rowdy Tellez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 7.0% lower than the league average. Luis Castillo induces Standard Grounders at a 37.0% rate, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -7.0% +2.6% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.6% +0.5% 14%

Low Screamer +3.0% +0.8% 9%

Rising Liner -1.0% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.4% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer +1.3% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter +0.3% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.4% -3.8% 3%

Pop up +1.3% 0.0%

31.7% of Rowdy Tellez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.4% higher than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.4% +1.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -4.1% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.3% -3.3% 24%

Above 100 mph +7.4% +1.1%

13.4% of Rowdy Tellez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.0% higher than the league average. 11.4% of batted balls allowed by Luis Castillo are hit at this angle, which is 0.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.6% +1.9% 8%

1 to 6° +0.8% -0.8% 18%

7 to 18° -0.1% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -1.5% 11%

29 to 38° +2.0% 0.0% 7%

39 to 50° -1.7% -1.2% 8%

Above 50° +3.8% +1.4%

Rowdy Tellez has 5 plate appearances against Luis Castillo in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a home run and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
Expected From Contact →			2.24	0.63	0.48	1.13			0.449

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-17	Groundout			11%	88%
2024-08-17	Lineout			32%	68%
2024-08-17	Home Run	63%	26%		10%
2022-05-09	Double		22%	69%	9%
2022-05-09	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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