Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dominic Smith

matchup for Logan Webb

132nd out of 436 (Best 31%)

Logan Webb

matchup for Dominic Smith

369th out of 564 (Worst 35%)

Leans in favor of Webb

Dominic Smith has a 30.9% chance of reaching base vs Logan Webb, which is 0.0% higher than Smith's typical expectations, and 1.3% lower than batters facing Webb.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.9%	23.0%	1.9%	5.0%	16.1%	7.9%	25.2%
Smith	0.0	+1.1	-0.8	-0.5	+2.3	-1.1	-0.9
Webb	-1.3	-1.8	-0.5	-0.2	-1.1	+0.5	+3.2

Dominic Smith is better vs right-handed pitching. Logan Webb is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Smith has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Logan Webb throws a Sinker 36% of the time. Dominic Smith has an A- grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

36%

Changeup (R)

34%

Slider (R)

25%

13% of Logan Webb's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Dominic Smith has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+5%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 19%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 9%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 3%

-4%

47% of Logan Webb's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 34% higher than the MLB average. Dominic Smith has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 47%

+34%

Offspeed (R) 34%

+23%

Extreme Break 24%

+9%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+9%

14.0% of Dominic Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. Logan Webb strikes out 15.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.0% -0.8% 4%

Walk +1.0% -2.4% 40%

In Play +0.0% +3.2% 39%

On Base -2.4% +1.6% 31%

Hit -3.4% +4.0% 14%

Single -1.9% +2.5% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% +2.8% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -1.3%

35.5% of Dominic Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Logan Webb induces Standard Grounders at a 44.3% rate, which is 9.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% +9.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.7% +1.1% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% -3.8% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% +0.2% 3%

Likely Homer +1.0% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.9% -7.2% 3%

Pop up -0.5% -1.4%

18.8% of Dominic Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.5% lower than the league average. 27.9% of batted balls allowed by Logan Webb are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph 0.0% -3.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.1% -1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.1% +0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -5.5% +3.6%

12.6% of Dominic Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% higher than the league average. 6.6% of batted balls allowed by Logan Webb are hit at this angle, which is 4.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +9.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° -0.2% +1.3% 18%

7 to 18° -1.4% +2.9% 15%

19 to 28° +2.0% -2.5% 11%

29 to 38° +1.1% -4.8% 7%

39 to 50° -1.4% -2.2% 8%

Above 50° +0.9% -5.1%

Dominic Smith has 8 plate appearances against Logan Webb in the last 3 years. He is 5 for 8.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	5	0	0	5	0	0	0.625
Expected From Contact →			2.54	0.00	0.15	2.39			0.317

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-22	Single			18%	82%
2023-05-09	Single			91%	8%
2023-05-09	Single			23%	76%
2023-05-09	Single			74%	25%
2022-05-24	Flyout				99%
2022-05-24	Forceout			19%	81%
2022-04-19	Single		11%	9%	80%
2022-04-19	Forceout			5%	95%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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