Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dominic Smith

matchup for A.J. Puk

234th out of 436 (Worst 47%)

A.J. Puk

matchup for Dominic Smith

553rd out of 567 (Worst 3%)

Strong advantage for Puk

Dominic Smith has a 24.6% chance of reaching base vs A.J. Puk, which is 6.3% lower than Smith's typical expectations, and 0.0% higher than batters facing Puk.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	24.6%	17.9%	2.2%	5.0%	10.7%	6.7%	38.4%
Smith	-6.3	-4.0	-0.4	-0.5	-3.0	-2.3	+12.3
Puk	0.0	-0.9	-0.4	+0.3	-0.8	+0.9	+1.0

Dominic Smith is worse vs left-handed pitching. A.J. Puk is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Smith has a C+ grade vs this particular release point.

A.J. Puk throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Dominic Smith has a B grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

47%

Slider (L)

38%

Sinker (L)

13%

16% of A.J. Puk's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Dominic Smith has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 16%

+5%

Strong Challenge 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Weak Challenge 9%

Fringe Miss 12%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-3%

30% of A.J. Puk's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 27% higher than the MLB average. Dominic Smith has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 30%

+27%

Large Break 36%

+14%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

Breaking (L) 38%

+9%

14.0% of Dominic Smith's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.0% lower than the league average. A.J. Puk strikes out 20.8% of the batters he faces, which is 8.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.0% +8.0% 4%

Walk +1.0% -1.3% 40%

In Play +0.0% -6.8% 39%

On Base -2.4% -4.0% 31%

Hit -3.4% -2.7% 14%

Single -1.9% -1.3% 13%

2B / 3B -1.8% -1.0% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.4%

35.5% of Dominic Smith's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. A.J. Puk induces Standard Grounders at a 32.6% rate, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt 0.0% +0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% -1.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -2.7% +0.2% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% +2.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -2.8% 3%

Likely Homer +1.0% +1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% -0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.9% +0.1% 3%

Pop up -0.5% +0.9%

18.8% of Dominic Smith's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 5.5% lower than the league average. 20.7% of batted balls allowed by A.J. Puk are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.3% +3.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph 0.0% +1.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.1% -2.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.1% +0.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -5.5% -3.6%

12.6% of Dominic Smith's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.1% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by A.J. Puk are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.8% +0.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.9% -2.3% 8%

1 to 6° -0.2% -0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -1.4% +1.6% 15%

19 to 28° +2.0% -1.6% 11%

29 to 38° +1.1% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° -1.4% +2.5% 8%

Above 50° +0.9% +1.1%

Dominic Smith has 3 plate appearances against A.J. Puk in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.08	0.00	0.04	0.03			0.026

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-04	Flyout				99%
2023-08-31	Groundout			3%	97%
2023-06-17	Flyout		4%		95%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe