Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Ryan McMahon

matchup for Jared Jones

189th out of 436 (Best 44%)

Jared Jones

matchup for Ryan McMahon

391st out of 567 (Worst 31%)

Leans in favor of Jones

Ryan McMahon has a 31.4% chance of reaching base vs Jared Jones, which is 1.0% lower than McMahon's typical expectations, and 0.3% higher than batters facing Jones.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.4%	19.7%	3.2%	4.9%	11.6%	11.7%	37.6%
McMahon	-1.0	-1.3	+0.6	0.0	-1.9	+0.3	+7.8
Jones	+0.3	-1.2	+0.2	-0.1	-1.3	+1.5	+9.0

Ryan McMahon is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jared Jones is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. McMahon has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Jared Jones throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Ryan McMahon has an F grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Slider (R)

35%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

17% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 6% higher than the MLB average. Ryan McMahon has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 17%

+6%

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Meatball 3%

-4%

36% of Jared Jones's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Ryan McMahon has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Break 36%

+16%

Extreme Fast Velo 18%

+15%

Breaking (R) 44%

+13%

High Ride 22%

+11%

17.8% of Ryan McMahon's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.4% higher than the league average. Jared Jones strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.4% +0.4% 4%

Walk +1.2% +0.6% 42%

In Play -6.6% -1.1% 39%

On Base +0.4% -0.1% 31%

Hit -0.8% -0.8% 14%

Single -0.6% -1.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.2% -0.5% 3%

Home Run 0.0% +0.9%

37.4% of Ryan McMahon's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.9% higher than the league average. Jared Jones induces Standard Grounders at a 30.0% rate, which is 4.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +2.9% -4.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.1% +0.4% 14%

Low Screamer -3.0% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.1% +1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.0% +1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +0.1% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter 0.0% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.0% +1.5% 3%

Pop up -2.1% +2.5%

30.3% of Ryan McMahon's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 6.0% higher than the league average. 24.7% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.3% +1.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% -4.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.4% -2.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +1.3% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +6.0% +0.4%

11.2% of Ryan McMahon's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 8.9% of batted balls allowed by Jared Jones are hit at this angle, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.0% +1.2% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.7% -0.1% 8%

1 to 6° +1.6% -2.6% 18%

7 to 18° +0.5% -1.8% 15%

19 to 28° +0.1% +4.0% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% -2.6% 7%

39 to 50° -0.8% -0.5% 8%

Above 50° -2.9% +2.4%

Ryan McMahon has 6 plate appearances against Jared Jones in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	1	0	4	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			0.43	0.00	0.34	0.09			0.072

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-15	Strikeout
2024-06-15	Double		32%	9%	59%
2024-06-15	Strikeout
2024-05-04	Flyout		2%		98%
2024-05-04	Strikeout
2024-05-04	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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