Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jonah Heim

matchup for Tanner Houck

323rd out of 436 (Worst 26%)

Tanner Houck

matchup for Jonah Heim

261st out of 567 (Best 47%)

Moderate advantage for Heim

Jonah Heim has a 32.4% chance of reaching base vs Tanner Houck, which is 1.8% higher than Heim's typical expectations, and 0.7% higher than batters facing Houck.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.4%	21.1%	2.1%	4.4%	14.6%	11.3%	14.4%
Heim	+1.8	-1.4	-0.9	-0.9	+0.3	+3.2	-5.3
Houck	+0.7	-1.0	+0.0	+0.0	-1.0	+1.6	-5.3

Jonah Heim is worse vs right-handed pitching. Tanner Houck is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Heim has an A grade vs this particular release point.

Tanner Houck throws a Slider 40% of the time. Jonah Heim has a D grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

40%

Sinker (R)

28%

Splitter (R)

15%

4-Seam (R)

14%

10% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

53% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 41% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 53%

+41%

Large Break 17%

+12%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

Very Slow Velo 22%

+9%

10.8% of Jonah Heim's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.4% lower than the league average. Tanner Houck strikes out 14.2% of the batters he faces, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.4% -1.6% 5%

Walk -3.0% +0.2% 36%

In Play +9.4% +1.4% 39%

On Base -2.0% +0.4% 31%

Hit +1.0% +0.3% 14%

Single +0.2% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B +0.5% +0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.9%

31.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. Tanner Houck induces Standard Grounders at a 41.9% rate, which is 7.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.8% +7.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.1% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% -5.6% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter 0.0% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -2.8% 3%

Pop up +4.3% -0.9%

21.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. 30.6% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.3% -0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% -0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.9% -4.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% -0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.7% +6.3%

12.1% of Jonah Heim's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.4% +7.8% 12%

-10 to 0° 0.0% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° -1.6% +1.7% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -3.8% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% -2.7% 8%

Above 50° +5.5% -2.9%

Jonah Heim has 7 plate appearances against Tanner Houck in the last 3 years. He is 4 for 7 with 3 home runs and a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	4	3	1	0	1	0	0.571
Expected From Contact →			3.68	2.81	0.50	0.37			0.526

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-28	Home Run
2025-03-28	Home Run
2024-08-03	Home Run	92%	3%		5%
2024-08-03	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Flyout				99%
2023-09-19	Double		40%	13%	47%
2022-05-15	Groundout			24%	75%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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