Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jonah Heim

matchup for Brad Keller

232nd out of 436 (Worst 47%)

Brad Keller

matchup for Jonah Heim

248th out of 567 (Best 45%)

Moderate advantage for Heim

Jonah Heim has a 31.2% chance of reaching base vs Brad Keller, which is 0.5% higher than Heim's typical expectations, and 1.6% lower than batters facing Keller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.2%	21.9%	3.3%	4.5%	14.1%	9.3%	16.7%
Heim	+0.5	-0.6	+0.3	-0.8	-0.2	+1.2	-2.9
Keller	-1.6	-0.8	+0.3	-0.5	-0.6	-0.8	-3.1

Jonah Heim is worse vs right-handed pitching. Brad Keller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Heim has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Brad Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 36% of the time. Jonah Heim has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

36%

Slider (R)

34%

Sinker (R)

16%

13% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Fringe Miss 12%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Strong Challenge 3%

-2%

Mid Challenge 10%

-2%

Meatball 5%

-2%

39% of Brad Keller's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 39%

+16%

Small Break 25%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 27%

+12%

10.8% of Jonah Heim's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.4% lower than the league average. Brad Keller strikes out 11.7% of the batters he faces, which is 5.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.4% -5.3% 5%

Walk -3.0% +0.7% 36%

In Play +9.4% +4.6% 39%

On Base -2.0% +4.5% 31%

Hit +1.0% +3.8% 14%

Single +0.2% +2.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.5% +2.3% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.5%

31.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. Brad Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 42.2% rate, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.8% +7.8% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.1% +0.8% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% -0.2% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -3.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% +0.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter 0.0% +1.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -4.3% 3%

Pop up +4.3% -1.6%

21.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.3% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.9% -2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% -0.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.7% +1.1%

12.1% of Jonah Heim's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 9.4% of batted balls allowed by Brad Keller are hit at this angle, which is 2.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.4% +8.1% 12%

-10 to 0° 0.0% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° -1.6% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% -3.9% 15%

19 to 28° -3.8% +0.5% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% -2.0% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% -1.1% 8%

Above 50° +5.5% -2.7%

Jonah Heim has 3 plate appearances against Brad Keller in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.28	0.00	0.01	0.27			0.093

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-05-10	Single			27%	72%
2022-05-10	Pop Out				100%
2022-05-10	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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