Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jonah Heim

matchup for N. Cortes Jr.

326th out of 436 (Worst 25%)

Nestor Cortes Jr.

matchup for Jonah Heim

170th out of 567 (Best 31%)

Strong advantage for Heim

Jonah Heim has a 31.6% chance of reaching base vs Nestor Cortes Jr., which is 0.9% higher than Heim's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Cortes Jr..

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	31.6%	23.2%	4.1%	5.1%	14.0%	8.4%	19.0%
Heim	+0.9	+0.6	+1.0	-0.2	-0.3	+0.3	-0.6
Cortes Jr.	+0.1	+1.4	+0.8	-0.3	+0.9	-1.3	-4.9

Jonah Heim is better vs left-handed pitching. Nestor Cortes Jr. is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Heim has an A- grade vs this particular release point.

Nestor Cortes Jr. throws a 4-seam fastball 45% of the time. Jonah Heim has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

45%

Cutter (L)

24%

Slider (L)

20%

Changeup (L)

19% of Nestor Cortes Jr.'s pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Weak Challenge 6%

-3%

72% of Nestor Cortes Jr.'s pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an A grade against this type of pitch from left handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (L) 72%

+17%

High Ride 22%

+12%

Small Break 18%

+10%

10.8% of Jonah Heim's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.4% lower than the league average. Nestor Cortes Jr. strikes out 15.7% of the batters he faces, which is 0.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.4% -0.1% 5%

Walk -3.0% -0.6% 36%

In Play +9.4% +0.6% 39%

On Base -2.0% -2.1% 31%

Hit +1.0% -1.6% 14%

Single +0.2% -1.7% 13%

2B / 3B +0.5% -1.3% 3%

Home Run +0.3% +1.5%

31.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. Nestor Cortes Jr. induces Standard Grounders at a 27.5% rate, which is 7.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.8% -7.0% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.1% -0.8% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -2.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% +0.7% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter 0.0% +0.4% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% +1.2% 3%

Pop up +4.3% +5.1%

21.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. 24.0% of batted balls allowed by Nestor Cortes Jr. are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.3% +0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% +2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.9% -4.1% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% +1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.7% -0.3%

12.1% of Jonah Heim's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 13.2% of batted balls allowed by Nestor Cortes Jr. are hit at this angle, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.4% -5.7% 12%

-10 to 0° 0.0% -1.9% 8%

1 to 6° -1.6% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% -4.2% 15%

19 to 28° -3.8% +1.7% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% +1.8% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% +3.2% 8%

Above 50° +5.5% +4.7%

Jonah Heim has 5 plate appearances against Nestor Cortes Jr. in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 4 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.09	0.00	0.68	0.41			0.272

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-04-30	Double		67%	9%	24%
2023-04-30	Flyout				100%
2022-05-09	Groundout			28%	72%
2022-05-09	Walk
2022-05-09	Forceout			4%	96%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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