Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jonah Heim

matchup for Pablo Lopez

273rd out of 436 (Worst 38%)

Pablo Lopez

matchup for Jonah Heim

410th out of 567 (Worst 28%)

Leans in favor of Heim

Jonah Heim has a 29.5% chance of reaching base vs Pablo Lopez, which is 1.2% lower than Heim's typical expectations, and 1.1% lower than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.5%	23.8%	2.9%	4.3%	16.6%	5.7%	20.8%
Heim	-1.2	+1.2	-0.2	-1.0	+2.4	-2.4	+1.1
Lopez	-1.1	+0.0	+0.3	-0.3	0.0	-1.1	-4.8

Jonah Heim is worse vs right-handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Heim has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Pablo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Jonah Heim has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

25%

Slider (R)

13%

Curve (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

8% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 13%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

25% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Extreme Break 26%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

10.8% of Jonah Heim's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.4% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez strikes out 18.6% of the batters he faces, which is 4.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.4% +4.2% 5%

Walk -3.0% -2.5% 36%

In Play +9.4% -1.7% 39%

On Base -2.0% -1.8% 31%

Hit +1.0% +0.7% 14%

Single +0.2% +0.3% 13%

2B / 3B +0.5% +0.8% 3%

Home Run +0.3% -0.4%

31.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.8% rate, which is 4.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.8% +4.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.1% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% +1.3% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -0.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% -0.5% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -0.2% 1%

No Doubter 0.0% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% -1.7% 3%

Pop up +4.3% -0.2%

21.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. 23.0% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.3% +0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% +4.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.9% -0.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% -2.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.7% -1.3%

12.1% of Jonah Heim's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.4% +3.0% 12%

-10 to 0° 0.0% +0.8% 8%

1 to 6° -1.6% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% -1.8% 15%

19 to 28° -3.8% +0.7% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% -1.1% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% -0.8% 8%

Above 50° +5.5% -0.5%

Jonah Heim has 7 plate appearances against Pablo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	6	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.167
Expected From Contact →			0.60	0.00	0.02	0.58			0.100

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-26	Forceout			39%	60%
2024-05-26	Groundout			1%	99%
2023-08-24	GIDP			9%	91%
2023-08-24	Pop Out				100%
2022-07-21	Flyout				99%
2022-07-21	Single			8%	91%
2022-07-21	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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