Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jonah Heim

matchup for Shelby Miller

376th out of 436 (Worst 14%)

Shelby Miller

matchup for Jonah Heim

226th out of 564 (Best 41%)

Moderate advantage for Heim

Jonah Heim has a 28.5% chance of reaching base vs Shelby Miller, which is 2.2% lower than Heim's typical expectations, and 0.8% lower than batters facing Miller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	28.5%	22.2%	5.0%	5.4%	11.8%	6.3%	18.7%
Heim	-2.2	-0.4	+2.0	+0.1	-2.5	-1.8	-0.9
Miller	-0.8	+1.0	+1.3	+0.4	-0.7	-1.8	-6.0

Jonah Heim is worse vs right-handed pitching. Shelby Miller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Heim has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Shelby Miller throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Jonah Heim has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Slider (R)

11%

Curve (R)

10%

Splitter (R)

Cutter (R)

14% of Shelby Miller's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Non-Competitive 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

Chaser 4%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-3%

27% of Shelby Miller's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Jonah Heim has a B- grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

High Ride 27%

+16%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Medium Break 31%

+12%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

10.8% of Jonah Heim's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.4% lower than the league average. Shelby Miller strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 0.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Strikeout -6.4% +0.3% 5%

Walk -3.0% +0.8% 36%

In Play +9.4% -1.1% 39%

On Base -2.0% -4.9% 31%

Hit +1.0% -5.7% 14%

Single +0.2% -3.1% 13%

2B / 3B +0.5% -2.8% 3%

Home Run +0.3% +0.3%

31.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. Shelby Miller induces Standard Grounders at a 34.0% rate, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.1% -0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder -2.8% -0.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.1% 0.0% 14%

Low Screamer -1.5% -2.8% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +1.4% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter 0.0% +0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.9% +3.5% 3%

Pop up +4.3% +1.2%

21.6% of Jonah Heim's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.7% lower than the league average. 25.5% of batted balls allowed by Shelby Miller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.3% -4.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% -1.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.9% +2.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% +2.5% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.7% +1.2%

12.1% of Jonah Heim's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Shelby Miller are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.4% -0.9% 12%

-10 to 0° 0.0% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° -1.6% +0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -0.7% -2.2% 15%

19 to 28° -3.8% -2.2% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% -1.4% 7%

39 to 50° +1.4% +2.4% 8%

Above 50° +5.5% +3.6%

Jonah Heim has 2 plate appearances against Shelby Miller in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.13	0.00	0.00	0.13			0.064

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-04	Strikeout
2024-04-17	Groundout			13%	87%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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