matchup for Griffin Canning
2
Mitch Garver has a 34.5% chance of reaching base vs Griffin Canning, which is 2.7% higher than Garver's typical expectations, and 1.5% higher than batters facing Canning.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 34.5% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 9.9% | 18.6% | 28.2% |
| Garver | +2.7 | -1.2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | +3.9 | -3.3 |
| Canning | +1.5 | -5.7 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -4.0 | +7.2 | +6.6 |
Mitch Garver is worse vs right-handed pitching. Griffin Canning is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Garver has a D grade vs this particular release point.
Griffin Canning throws a 4-seam fastball 39% of the time. Mitch Garver has a B- grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
39%
Slider (R)
27%
Changeup (R)
21%
Curve (R)
11%
14% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Non-Competitive, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Mitch Garver has an A grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Non-Competitive
14%
+1%
Likely Ball
20%
+0%
Meatball
7%
+0%
Weak Challenge
8%
+0%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Mid Challenge
11%
0%
Chaser
6%
0%
Strong Challenge
5%
-1%
Edge Painter
17%
-1%
38% of Griffin Canning's pitches are classified as Medium Slow Velocity, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Mitch Garver has a B grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Medium Slow Velo
38%
+24%
Offspeed (R)
21%
+9%
Medium Break
28%
+9%
18.2% of Mitch Garver's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.0% higher than the league average. Griffin Canning strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.
12%
Strikeout
+6.0%
-1.9%
3%
Walk
+3.9%
+0.3%
44%
In Play
-10.0%
+1.6%
39%
On Base
-7.1%
-0.9%
31%
Hit
-11.0%
-1.1%
14%
Single
-6.2%
-1.0%
13%
2B / 3B
-5.8%
-0.7%
3%
Home Run
+1.0%
+0.6%
29.9% of Mitch Garver's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.5% lower than the league average. Griffin Canning induces Standard Grounders at a 29.9% rate, which is 4.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.4%
-0.4%
34%
Standard Grounder
-4.5%
-4.5%
7%
Hard Grounder
+0.8%
+1.4%
14%
Low Screamer
-1.3%
+1.0%
9%
Rising Liner
+1.3%
-0.2%
4%
Maybe Homer
+1.1%
-0.7%
3%
Likely Homer
+0.7%
+0.8%
1%
No Doubter
+1.5%
+0.5%
20%
Routine Flyout
+0.1%
+2.5%
3%
Pop up
+0.8%
-0.6%
26.5% of Mitch Garver's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.2% higher than the league average. 26.3% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-1.3%
-0.1%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-0.2%
-2.0%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-1.9%
-0.6%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+1.2%
+0.8%
24%
Above 100 mph
+2.2%
+2.0%
10.6% of Mitch Garver's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% lower than the league average. 12.5% of batted balls allowed by Griffin Canning are hit at this angle, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-1.8%
-1.8%
12%
-10 to 0°
-2.3%
-1.5%
8%
1 to 6°
-0.8%
+0.3%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.5%
-1.8%
15%
19 to 28°
+1.5%
-1.2%
11%
29 to 38°
-0.8%
+1.0%
7%
39 to 50°
+2.1%
+0.5%
8%
Above 50°
+2.6%
+4.5%
Mitch Garver has 8 plate appearances against Griffin Canning in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 8 with a double and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.375 |
| Expected From Contact → | 2.12 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 1.18 | 0.264 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-06-02 | Single | 6% | 94% | ||
| 2024-06-02 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-06-02 | Groundout | 5% | 95% | ||
| 2023-09-27 | Groundout | 16% | 84% | ||
| 2023-09-27 | Pop Out | 100% | |||
| 2023-09-27 | Single | 4% | 79% | 18% | |
| 2023-08-14 | Double | 89% | 8% | 3% | |
| 2023-08-14 | Groundout | 5% | 95% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
