Matchup Machine

Jake Fraley

Worst 36% of matchups for Kenta Maeda

Kenta Maeda

Worst 11% of matchups for Jake Fraley

Moderate advantage for Maeda

- 4

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.7%	4.4%	12.6%	6.7%	23.8%
MLB (+/-)	-0.1	+0.2	-1.3	-3.0	-1.4
Fraley	+0.1	0.0	-2.5	-1.0	+1.4
Maeda	-0.3	+0.4	+0.7	-1.9	-3.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.7%

4.4%

12.6%

6.7%

23.8%

MLB (+/-)

-0.1

+0.2

-1.3

-3.0

-1.4

Fraley

+0.1

0.0

-2.5

-1.0

+1.4

Maeda

-0.3

+0.4

+0.7

-1.9

-3.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	.500
Expected From Contact →			0.95	0.00	0.01	0.93			.474

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Flyout				100%
2023-09-19	Walk
2021-06-14	Walk
2021-06-14	Single		1%	93%	5%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	56%	52	LHB vs RHP	52	49%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

56%

LHB vs RHP

49%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
22%	33	Breaking	45	34%
55%	53	Fastball	37	34%
17%	46	Offspeed	98	32%	⭐
		------------------
47%	55	Splitter	92	32%
61%	48	Slider	44	31%
55%	50	Four-Seam FB	24	28%
49%	64	Sinker	73	6%
49%	-5	Curveball	31	4%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

22%

Breaking

34%

55%

Fastball

34%

17%

Offspeed

32%

⭐

------------------

47%

Splitter

32%

61%

Slider

31%

55%

Four-Seam FB

28%

49%

Sinker

49%

-5

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	73%	35	Bottom of zone	21	16%
	77%	47	Away / Arm Side	24	12%
	79%	55	Top of zone	37	8%
	72%	44	In / Glove Side	70	7%
⭐	87%	100	Middle	45	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

73%

Bottom of zone

16%

77%

Away / Arm Side

12%

79%

Top of zone

72%

In / Glove Side

⭐

87%

100

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
47%	41	Below the zone	77	40%
36%	55	Away / Arm Side	54	39%
35%	7	Above the zone	46	18%
45%	-12	In / Glove Side	42	14%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

47%

Below the zone

40%

36%

Away / Arm Side

39%

35%

Above the zone

18%

45%

-12

In / Glove Side

14%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
70%	30	2 Strikes	50	30%
59%	58	Batter Behind	57	27%
57%	24	Batter Ahead	58	27%
42%	40	First Pitch	30	25%
60%	49	3 Balls	67	8%
79%	38	Full Count	54	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

70%

2 Strikes

30%

59%

Batter Behind

27%

57%

Batter Ahead

27%

42%

First Pitch

25%

60%

3 Balls

79%

Full Count