matchup for Jon Gray
3
Reese McGuire has a 31.7% chance of reaching base vs Jon Gray, which is 2.5% higher than McGuire's typical expectations, and 1.4% lower than batters facing Gray.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 31.7% | 26.6% | 2.0% | 5.3% | 19.2% | 5.1% | 18.7% |
| McGuire | +2.5 | +4.2 | +0.0 | +0.2 | +3.9 | -1.7 | -5.8 |
| Gray | -1.4 | +0.1 | -1.1 | -0.5 | +1.7 | -1.5 | +1.7 |
Reese McGuire is better vs right-handed pitching. Jon Gray is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. McGuire has a C- grade vs this particular release point.
Jon Gray throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Reese McGuire has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
47%
Slider (R)
38%
Changeup (R)
9%
Curve (R)
6%
11% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Reese McGuire has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Weak Challenge
11%
+3%
Mid Challenge
12%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Fringe Miss
12%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
0%
Meatball
6%
0%
Chaser
6%
-1%
Strong Challenge
4%
-1%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
41% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Reese McGuire has a D grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Low Ride
41%
+17%
Large Break
35%
+14%
Breaking (R)
44%
+13%
Medium Slow Velo
25%
+12%
15.1% of Reese McGuire's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Jon Gray strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
14%
Strikeout
+0.8%
+3.8%
5%
Walk
-1.5%
-1.2%
39%
In Play
+0.6%
-2.6%
39%
On Base
+2.1%
-0.6%
31%
Hit
+3.6%
+0.6%
14%
Single
+2.3%
+0.8%
13%
2B / 3B
+2.4%
+0.4%
3%
Home Run
-1.2%
-0.6%
38.6% of Reese McGuire's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.2% higher than the league average. Jon Gray induces Standard Grounders at a 34.6% rate, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+0.6%
0.0%
34%
Standard Grounder
+4.2%
+0.1%
7%
Hard Grounder
-3.3%
+0.0%
14%
Low Screamer
+4.2%
-0.2%
9%
Rising Liner
+3.6%
+0.7%
4%
Maybe Homer
-2.8%
-1.5%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.8%
-0.5%
1%
No Doubter
-1.1%
-0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
-4.9%
+1.2%
3%
Pop up
+0.3%
+0.4%
15.8% of Reese McGuire's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.5% lower than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+4.4%
-0.2%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+5.1%
-2.3%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-2.0%
-0.1%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+1.0%
+0.2%
24%
Above 100 mph
-8.5%
+2.4%
7.2% of Reese McGuire's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 4.2% lower than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at this angle, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+4.6%
+0.9%
12%
-10 to 0°
-1.8%
-1.5%
8%
1 to 6°
+0.1%
+0.4%
18%
7 to 18°
+5.2%
+1.3%
15%
19 to 28°
+0.3%
+0.4%
11%
29 to 38°
-4.2%
-1.8%
7%
39 to 50°
-3.5%
+0.9%
8%
Above 50°
-0.7%
-0.6%
Reese McGuire has 3 plate appearances against Jon Gray in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a walk
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.053 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2023-09-20 | Groundout | 10% | 89% | ||
| 2022-06-12 | Hit By Pitch | ||||
| 2022-06-12 | Walk | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
