Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jorge Mateo

matchup for Ryne Nelson

104th out of 436 (Best 25%)

Ryne Nelson

matchup for Jorge Mateo

368th out of 567 (Worst 35%)

Moderate advantage for Nelson

Jorge Mateo has a 27.8% chance of reaching base vs Ryne Nelson, which is 0.6% lower than Mateo's typical expectations, and 2.3% lower than batters facing Nelson.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.8%	23.1%	2.1%	4.4%	16.5%	4.7%	27.9%
Mateo	-0.6	+0.4	-0.2	-0.2	+0.8	-1.0	+2.4
Nelson	-2.3	-0.4	-0.6	-0.4	+0.7	-1.9	+1.7

Jorge Mateo is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Ryne Nelson is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Mateo has a D- grade vs this particular release point.

Ryne Nelson throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Jorge Mateo has an F grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Cutter (R)

15%

Slider (R)

11%

Changeup (R)

11%

Curve (R)

15% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Jorge Mateo has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+4%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

29% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Jorge Mateo has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

High Ride 29%

+19%

Fastball (R) 72%

+18%

Small Break 25%

+16%

Fast Velo 29%

+14%

14.7% of Jorge Mateo's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.1% higher than the league average. Ryne Nelson strikes out 13.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.1% -2.9% 5%

Walk -2.7% -2.2% 39%

In Play +2.6% +5.1% 39%

On Base -3.6% +0.3% 31%

Hit -0.9% +2.5% 14%

Single -0.1% +1.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.3% +1.5% 3%

Home Run -1.0% +0.1%

34.9% of Jorge Mateo's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. Ryne Nelson induces Standard Grounders at a 35.6% rate, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +2.0% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.5% +1.2% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.5% -2.5% 14%

Low Screamer +1.2% +1.0% 9%

Rising Liner -1.2% +2.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -1.8% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.7% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter +0.1% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.4% +0.8% 3%

Pop up +4.8% -0.5%

24.0% of Jorge Mateo's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.3% lower than the league average. 29.1% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.9% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.5% -2.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.3% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -4.8% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -0.3% +4.8%

8.6% of Jorge Mateo's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.8% lower than the league average. 10.5% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.3% +2.5% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.4% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +0.0% -2.6% 18%

7 to 18° -1.5% +5.0% 15%

19 to 28° -1.7% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° -2.8% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° -0.3% +0.6% 8%

Above 50° +3.6% -0.1%

Jorge Mateo has 2 plate appearances against Ryne Nelson in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.23	0.00	0.03	1.21			0.617

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-11	GIDP			30%	70%
2024-05-11	Single		3%	90%	7%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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