Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Dansby Swanson

matchup for Max Fried

286th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Max Fried

matchup for Dansby Swanson

276th out of 567 (Best 50%)

Leans in favor of Swanson

Dansby Swanson has a 33.4% chance of reaching base vs Max Fried, which is 2.0% higher than Swanson's typical expectations, and 1.1% higher than batters facing Fried.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.4%	23.6%	1.6%	4.7%	17.2%	9.8%	23.6%
Swanson	+2.0	+1.7	-0.9	+0.0	+2.6	+0.3	+0.1
Fried	+1.1	+0.5	-0.5	+0.2	+0.8	+0.6	-2.9

Dansby Swanson is better vs left-handed pitching. Max Fried is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Swanson has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Max Fried throws a 4-seam fastball 35% of the time. Dansby Swanson has an A+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

35%

Curve (L)

23%

Slider (L)

17%

Sinker (L)

13%

Changeup (L)

11%

13% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Dansby Swanson has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 13%

+4%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Meatball 1%

-4%

23% of Max Fried's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Dansby Swanson has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 23%

+19%

Slow Lob 18%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

Breaking (L) 40%

+11%

13.7% of Dansby Swanson's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.5% lower than the league average. Max Fried strikes out 18.3% of the batters he faces, which is 3.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.5% +3.0% 4%

Walk +1.1% -1.8% 39%

In Play +0.4% -1.2% 39%

On Base +1.7% +0.3% 31%

Hit +0.6% +2.0% 14%

Single -0.4% +1.7% 13%

2B / 3B +0.4% +1.7% 3%

Home Run +0.5% -1.4%

34.4% of Dansby Swanson's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.0% higher than the league average. Max Fried induces Standard Grounders at a 45.7% rate, which is 11.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.0% +11.3% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.4% +0.3% 14%

Low Screamer +0.4% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% -1.6% 3%

Likely Homer -0.2% -1.3% 1%

No Doubter -0.6% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +1.1% -6.5% 3%

Pop up -0.5% -0.7%

23.7% of Dansby Swanson's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 20.8% of batted balls allowed by Max Fried are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.1% +4.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.9% +3.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph +0.4% -3.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% +0.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -0.6% -3.5%

12.2% of Dansby Swanson's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Max Fried are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.7% +8.9% 12%

-10 to 0° +1.6% +2.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.8% -0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +0.2% +0.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -3.5% 11%

29 to 38° +0.7% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -2.3% 8%

Above 50° -1.0% -3.9%

Dansby Swanson has 6 plate appearances against Max Fried in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 6 with 3 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	1	0	0	1	3	0	0.167
Expected From Contact →			0.49	0.00	0.09	0.40			0.081

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-22	Strikeout
2024-05-22	Groundout			22%	78%
2024-05-22	Single		8%	6%	86%
2023-08-04	Strikeout
2023-08-04	Strikeout
2023-08-04	Groundout			13%	87%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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