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Jesse Winker

matchup for Jake Irvin

419th out of 436 (Worst 4%)

Jake Irvin

matchup for Jesse Winker

53rd out of 567 (Best 10%)

Extreme advantage for Winker

Jesse Winker has a 39.6% chance of reaching base vs Jake Irvin, which is 3.9% higher than Winker's typical expectations, and 5.6% higher than batters facing Irvin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	39.6%	25.5%	3.4%	5.1%	16.9%	14.1%	17.3%
Winker	+3.9	+3.9	+0.8	+0.2	+2.9	+0.1	-5.0
Irvin	+5.6	+1.0	+0.3	-0.3	+1.0	+4.6	-2.7

Jesse Winker is better vs right-handed pitching. Jake Irvin is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Winker has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Jake Irvin throws a 4-seam fastball 36% of the time. Jesse Winker has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

36%

Curve (R)

31%

Sinker (R)

26%

10% of Jake Irvin's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

Chaser 5%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

17% of Jake Irvin's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 12% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has a B+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 17%

+12%

Fastball (R) 65%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

Large Drop 15%

+10%

12.0% of Jesse Winker's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% lower than the league average. Jake Irvin strikes out 12.8% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.4% -4.3% 2%

Walk +4.9% -0.5% 40%

In Play -0.5% +4.8% 39%

On Base +7.3% +1.3% 31%

Hit +2.4% +1.9% 14%

Single +0.8% +0.3% 13%

2B / 3B +1.2% +0.5% 3%

Home Run +0.4% +1.1%

35.2% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Jake Irvin induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% +1.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.6% +1.1% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner +1.6% +3.0% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% +2.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.3% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.5% -4.9% 3%

Pop up +1.2% -1.5%

26.9% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.6% higher than the league average. 27.9% of batted balls allowed by Jake Irvin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.0% -7.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +0.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.9% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.5% +4.9% 24%

Above 100 mph +2.6% +3.6%

11.9% of Jesse Winker's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 9.7% of batted balls allowed by Jake Irvin are hit at this angle, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.4% +1.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% +1.6% 8%

1 to 6° +2.3% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° +1.4% +3.5% 15%

19 to 28° -2.3% +0.0% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -1.7% 7%

39 to 50° -1.6% -3.8% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% -1.6%

Jesse Winker has 3 plate appearances against Jake Irvin in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 3.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.17	0.05	0.11	0.00			0.056

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-16	Flyout		2%		98%
2024-09-16	Flyout	5%	9%		85%
2024-09-16	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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