Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jesse Winker

matchup for Felix Bautista

411st out of 436 (Worst 6%)

Felix Bautista

matchup for Jesse Winker

out of 567 (Worst %)

Leans in favor of Winker

Jesse Winker has a 35.5% chance of reaching base vs Felix Bautista, which is 0.1% higher than Winker's typical expectations, and 6.4% higher than batters facing Bautista.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.5%	16.3%	2.6%	3.3%	10.4%	19.2%	32.1%
Winker	-0.1	-5.3	-0.1	-1.7	-3.5	+5.1	+9.9
Bautista	+6.4	-0.2	0.0	+0.3	-0.5	+6.6	-3.6

Jesse Winker is better vs right-handed pitching. Felix Bautista is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Winker has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Felix Bautista throws a 4-seam fastball 65% of the time. Jesse Winker has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

65%

Splitter (R)

25%

Slider (R)

10% of Felix Bautista's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 5% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 10%

+5%

Chaser 9%

+3%

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Likely Ball 19%

Fringe Miss 11%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Meatball 2%

-5%

Weak Challenge 3%

-5%

54% of Felix Bautista's pitches are classified as Extreme Fast Velocity, which is 51% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Fast Velo 54%

+51%

Medium Break 67%

+48%

Extreme Ride 47%

+43%

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Fastball (R) 66%

+12%

12.0% of Jesse Winker's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% lower than the league average. Felix Bautista strikes out 25.5% of the batters he faces, which is 19.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.4% +19.3% 2%

Walk +4.9% +2.3% 40%

In Play -0.5% -21.6% 39%

On Base +7.3% -10.2% 31%

Hit +2.4% -12.5% 14%

Single +0.8% -5.8% 13%

2B / 3B +1.2% -5.4% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -1.3%

35.2% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Felix Bautista induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.8% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% +0.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.6% -2.4% 14%

Low Screamer -2.0% +0.3% 9%

Rising Liner +1.6% -3.9% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.5% +2.9% 3%

Likely Homer -0.3% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.5% -0.6% 3%

Pop up +1.2% +5.6%

26.9% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.6% higher than the league average. 16.6% of batted balls allowed by Felix Bautista are hit at above 100 mph, which is 7.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +0.0% +2.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph -2.1% +5.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.9% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.5% +1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph +2.6% -7.7%

11.9% of Jesse Winker's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 10.8% of batted balls allowed by Felix Bautista are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° +0.4% -4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.8% -1.4% 8%

1 to 6° +2.3% -2.3% 18%

7 to 18° +1.4% -3.1% 15%

19 to 28° -2.3% +2.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.5% -0.6% 7%

39 to 50° -1.6% +0.7% 8%

Above 50° +0.3% +8.8%

Jesse Winker has 2 plate appearances against Felix Bautista in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	1.000
Expected From Contact →			0.77	0.63	0.14	0.00			0.772

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-06-28	Double	63%	14%		23%
2022-06-01	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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