matchup for Pablo Lopez
matchup for Jesse Winker
6
Jesse Winker has a 34.9% chance of reaching base vs Pablo Lopez, which is 0.7% lower than Winker's typical expectations, and 4.4% higher than batters facing Lopez.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 34.9% | 24.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 17.4% | 10.2% | 23.9% |
| Winker | -0.7 | +3.2 | +0.1 | -0.4 | +3.5 | -4.0 | +1.6 |
| Lopez | +4.4 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +3.3 | -1.7 |
Jesse Winker is better vs right-handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Winker has a B grade vs this particular release point.
Pablo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Jesse Winker has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
37%
Changeup (R)
25%
Slider (R)
13%
Curve (R)
10%
Sinker (R)
9%
8% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has a C- grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Chaser
8%
+2%
Mid Challenge
13%
+1%
Weak Challenge
9%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+1%
Likely Ball
20%
+1%
Edge Painter
17%
+0%
Strong Challenge
5%
0%
Meatball
4%
-2%
Non-Competitive
9%
-4%
25% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Jesse Winker has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Offspeed (R)
25%
+14%
Extreme Break
26%
+11%
Fast Velo
26%
+11%
12.0% of Jesse Winker's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.4% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez strikes out 18.6% of the batters he faces, which is 4.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Strikeout
-4.4%
+4.2%
2%
Walk
+4.9%
-2.5%
40%
In Play
-0.5%
-1.7%
39%
On Base
+7.2%
-1.9%
31%
Hit
+2.4%
+0.6%
14%
Single
+0.8%
+0.3%
13%
2B / 3B
+1.2%
+0.7%
3%
Home Run
+0.4%
-0.4%
35.2% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Pablo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.9% rate, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.7%
+0.0%
34%
Standard Grounder
+0.8%
+4.5%
7%
Hard Grounder
+2.6%
-1.2%
14%
Low Screamer
-2.0%
+1.1%
9%
Rising Liner
+1.6%
-0.5%
4%
Maybe Homer
+0.5%
-0.6%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.3%
-0.3%
1%
No Doubter
-0.1%
-0.6%
20%
Routine Flyout
-3.6%
-2.0%
3%
Pop up
+1.2%
-0.3%
27.0% of Jesse Winker's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.7% higher than the league average. 22.7% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+0.0%
+0.3%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-2.1%
+4.2%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+1.9%
-0.5%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-2.5%
-2.4%
24%
Above 100 mph
+2.7%
-1.6%
11.9% of Jesse Winker's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.5% higher than the league average. 10.0% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at this angle, which is 1.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+0.4%
+3.8%
12%
-10 to 0°
-0.8%
+0.4%
8%
1 to 6°
+2.3%
-0.1%
18%
7 to 18°
+1.4%
-1.7%
15%
19 to 28°
-2.3%
+0.5%
11%
29 to 38°
+0.5%
-1.4%
7%
39 to 50°
-1.6%
-1.0%
8%
Above 50°
+0.2%
-0.5%
Jesse Winker has 3 plate appearances against Pablo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2 with a home run, a walk
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 |
| Expected From Contact → | 1.07 | 0.69 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.534 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-05-20 | Groundout | 15% | 85% | ||
| 2024-05-20 | Home Run | 69% | 22% | 9% | |
| 2024-05-20 | Walk | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
