Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Zac Gallen

396th out of 436 (Worst 9%)

Zac Gallen

matchup for Carson Kelly

249th out of 567 (Best 45%)

Strong advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 36.1% chance of reaching base vs Zac Gallen, which is 2.8% higher than Kelly's typical expectations, and 3.5% higher than batters facing Gallen.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	36.1%	21.4%	3.3%	4.2%	14.0%	14.7%	23.8%
Kelly	+2.8	-1.8	+0.2	-0.8	-1.2	+4.6	+4.7
Gallen	+3.5	+1.5	+0.5	-0.3	+1.3	+2.0	-7.7

Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Zac Gallen is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Kelly has a D+ grade vs this particular release point.

Zac Gallen throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Carson Kelly has a C grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Kn-Curve (R)

23%

Changeup (R)

14%

Cutter (R)

10%

22% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 22%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

25% of Zac Gallen's pitches are classified as Small Break Toward Third Base, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Break 25%

+16%

Extreme Drop 19%

+14%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+8%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Zac Gallen strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% +3.5% 4%

Walk +0.3% -0.3% 38%

In Play +4.9% -3.2% 39%

On Base -1.7% -2.0% 31%

Hit -2.0% -1.7% 14%

Single -1.2% -1.0% 13%

2B / 3B -1.2% -0.6% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.1%

35.4% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Zac Gallen induces Standard Grounders at a 32.8% rate, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% +0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% -1.6% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% +2.2% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% +1.2% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% -1.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.1% +0.4% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% +1.3% 3%

Pop up +1.3% -1.5%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 26.5% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.9% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.8% -2.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -1.0% +0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.1% +1.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% +2.2%

14.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.6% higher than the league average. 10.7% of batted balls allowed by Zac Gallen are hit at this angle, which is 0.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.2% -0.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% +0.5% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -0.3% 18%

7 to 18° -4.1% +1.0% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +2.6% -0.8% 7%

39 to 50° -0.8% +1.0% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -1.6%

Carson Kelly has 3 plate appearances against Zac Gallen in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.72	0.00	0.01	0.71			0.240

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-18	Strikeout
2024-05-18	Groundout			14%	85%
2024-05-18	Single			57%	43%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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