Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Cole Ragans

384th out of 436 (Worst 12%)

Cole Ragans

matchup for Carson Kelly

436th out of 567 (Worst 23%)

Moderate advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 32.8% chance of reaching base vs Cole Ragans, which is 0.1% higher than Kelly's typical expectations, and 2.8% higher than batters facing Ragans.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.8%	19.1%	2.3%	4.5%	12.2%	13.8%	22.5%
Kelly	+0.1	-3.9	-0.7	-0.5	-2.7	+4.0	+3.4
Ragans	+2.8	+0.8	0.0	+0.0	+0.8	+2.0	-6.8

Carson Kelly is better vs left-handed pitching. Cole Ragans is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Kelly has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Cole Ragans throws a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time. Carson Kelly has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

42%

Changeup (L)

24%

Cutter (L)

13%

Slider (L)

10%

Kn-Curve (L)

21% of Cole Ragans's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Weak Challenge 7%

-2%

43% of Cole Ragans's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 22% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 43%

+22%

Offspeed (L) 24%

+12%

Very Fast Velo 14%

+11%

High Ride 20%

+10%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Cole Ragans strikes out 18.7% of the batters he faces, which is 4.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% +4.5% 4%

Walk +0.3% +1.2% 38%

In Play +5.0% -5.8% 39%

On Base -1.8% -1.8% 31%

Hit -2.1% -3.0% 14%

Single -1.2% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% -1.2% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.2%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Cole Ragans induces Standard Grounders at a 31.0% rate, which is 3.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% +2.2% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% -3.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% +2.6% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% +0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% +1.2% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% -0.8% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -2.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -2.2% 3%

Pop up +1.4% +2.0%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 17.3% of batted balls allowed by Cole Ragans are hit at above 100 mph, which is 7.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% +3.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% -0.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% +5.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% -1.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% -7.0%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Cole Ragans are hit at this angle, which is 1.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% +4.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% -5.7% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% +2.9% 18%

7 to 18° -4.0% +2.4% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -5.4% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% -1.8% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +0.0% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% +3.4%

Carson Kelly has 3 plate appearances against Cole Ragans in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 2 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-28	Walk
2023-09-28	Strikeout
2023-09-28	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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