matchup for Joe Ryan
matchup for Carson Kelly
2
Carson Kelly has a 27.8% chance of reaching base vs Joe Ryan, which is 4.9% lower than Kelly's typical expectations, and 0.9% higher than batters facing Ryan.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 27.8% | 20.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 22.4% |
| Kelly | -4.9 | -2.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -2.0 | -2.7 | +3.0 |
| Ryan | +0.9 | -0.2 | +0.6 | -0.6 | -0.1 | +1.1 | -6.5 |
Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Joe Ryan is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Kelly has a C grade vs this particular release point.
Joe Ryan throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Carson Kelly has a B- grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
56%
Slider (R)
19%
Splitter (R)
16%
9% of Joe Ryan's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Meatball
9%
+3%
Mid Challenge
13%
+2%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Chaser
6%
0%
Likely Ball
17%
-2%
Weak Challenge
5%
-3%
Non-Competitive
9%
-4%
49% of Joe Ryan's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has an A grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Large Break
49%
+28%
Low Ride
39%
+16%
Medium Fast Velo
28%
+13%
Offspeed (R)
20%
+9%
11.0% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.0% lower than the league average. Joe Ryan strikes out 16.9% of the batters he faces, which is 4.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Strikeout
-6.0%
+4.7%
4%
Walk
+0.8%
-3.3%
37%
In Play
+5.2%
-1.4%
39%
On Base
-0.6%
-8.1%
31%
Hit
-1.4%
-4.7%
14%
Single
-1.1%
-3.0%
13%
2B / 3B
-1.2%
-2.7%
3%
Home Run
+1.0%
+0.9%
35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Joe Ryan induces Standard Grounders at a 33.7% rate, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.7%
-0.7%
34%
Standard Grounder
+0.8%
-0.7%
7%
Hard Grounder
-0.4%
-2.8%
14%
Low Screamer
+1.0%
-0.4%
9%
Rising Liner
-1.8%
-2.2%
4%
Maybe Homer
+0.2%
-0.1%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.5%
-1.0%
1%
No Doubter
-0.2%
+0.8%
20%
Routine Flyout
+0.2%
+3.1%
3%
Pop up
+1.5%
+4.0%
21.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 23.2% of batted balls allowed by Joe Ryan are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+5.7%
+5.4%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-1.7%
-1.1%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-1.0%
-0.4%
19%
94 to 99 mph
0.0%
-2.7%
24%
Above 100 mph
-3.1%
-1.1%
13.8% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.4% higher than the league average. 11.8% of batted balls allowed by Joe Ryan are hit at this angle, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-0.6%
-1.8%
12%
-10 to 0°
-0.1%
-0.4%
8%
1 to 6°
+1.1%
-2.3%
18%
7 to 18°
-4.0%
-1.2%
15%
19 to 28°
-0.3%
-1.8%
11%
29 to 38°
+2.4%
+0.4%
7%
39 to 50°
-0.8%
+0.4%
8%
Above 50°
+2.3%
+6.7%
Carson Kelly has 5 plate appearances against Joe Ryan in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.034 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-04-19 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-04-19 | Pop Out | 100% | |||
| 2024-04-13 | Lineout | 10% | 7% | 83% | |
| 2024-04-13 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-04-13 | Strikeout | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
