Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Carson Kelly

matchup for Tanner Houck

405th out of 436 (Worst 7%)

Tanner Houck

matchup for Carson Kelly

227th out of 567 (Best 41%)

Strong advantage for Kelly

Carson Kelly has a 34.4% chance of reaching base vs Tanner Houck, which is 1.6% higher than Kelly's typical expectations, and 2.6% higher than batters facing Houck.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.4%	22.1%	2.6%	4.7%	14.8%	12.2%	14.4%
Kelly	+1.6	-0.8	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	+2.4	-4.7
Houck	+2.6	+0.0	+0.5	+0.3	-0.8	+2.5	-5.2

Carson Kelly is worse vs right-handed pitching. Tanner Houck is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Kelly has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Tanner Houck throws a Slider 40% of the time. Carson Kelly has a D+ grade against right-handed Sliders

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Slider (R)

40%

Sinker (R)

28%

Splitter (R)

15%

4-Seam (R)

14%

10% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 4%

-2%

53% of Tanner Houck's pitches are classified as Medium Drop, which is 41% higher than the MLB average. Carson Kelly has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Medium Drop 53%

+41%

Large Break 17%

+12%

Breaking (R) 40%

+9%

Very Slow Velo 22%

+9%

11.5% of Carson Kelly's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Tanner Houck strikes out 14.2% of the batters he faces, which is 1.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -5.2% -1.6% 4%

Walk +0.3% +0.2% 38%

In Play +5.0% +1.4% 39%

On Base -1.8% +0.4% 31%

Hit -2.1% +0.3% 14%

Single -1.2% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B -1.3% +0.7% 3%

Home Run +0.4% -0.9%

35.2% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. Tanner Houck induces Standard Grounders at a 41.9% rate, which is 7.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.7% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.8% +7.5% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.5% +2.4% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% -5.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.8% +2.9% 4%

Maybe Homer 0.0% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -0.6% -1.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% -2.8% 3%

Pop up +1.4% -0.9%

21.0% of Carson Kelly's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 30.6% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at above 100 mph, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +5.8% -0.8% 21%

75 to 86 mph -1.6% -0.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph -0.8% -4.3% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% -0.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.3% +6.3%

13.9% of Carson Kelly's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Tanner Houck are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% +7.8% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.2% +1.7% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% +1.7% 18%

7 to 18° -4.0% -0.1% 15%

19 to 28° -0.5% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% -2.7% 8%

Above 50° +2.2% -2.9%

Carson Kelly has 6 plate appearances against Tanner Houck in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.09	0.00	0.02	0.08			0.023

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-14	Groundout			2%	98%
2024-08-14	Walk
2024-08-14	Flyout				100%
2024-05-31	Groundout		2%	3%	95%
2024-05-31	Groundout			2%	98%
2024-05-31	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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